The Bath Property market has undergone significant changes over the past few years, as depicted in the graphs below. These visual aids capture the trends in the number of properties available for sale and the number of properties sold subject to contract (SSTC) from January 2019-2024. By analysing these graphs, we can gain insight into the evolving dynamics of the local property market and the necessity for Bath homeowners to adopt realistic pricing strategies when bringing their homes to market.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE BATH MARKET DYNAMICS (2019-2024) –
From January 2019 to February 2020 (a normal market), the number of properties for sale in Bath remained relatively stable, at an average of 1,278 homes (bath being BA1/2). This pre-COVID period also showed a steady number of properties being sold each month, with an average of 181 home sales. This indicated a balanced market where the supply of homes was more or less matched by buyer demand.
The Bath property market underwent a noticeable shift with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late March 2020. As the pandemic gripped the nation, the number of properties that sold in April and May 2020 plummeted sharply. This was due to the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic. Many buyers held off amidst the uncertainty.
However, the floodgates opened once the property market lockdown was lifted in May/June 2020. The number of properties coming onto the market between June and August 2020 rose by 27% above the long-term average for that time of year, and the number of homes selling also rose.
In Bath, in the 20 months between May 2020 and December 2021, the average number of Bath homes sold per month was 245, with the biggest month being 342 homes Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC). However, the number of homes for sale slowly dropped throughout the period to an all-time low of just 540 homes for sale in December of 2021.
What stands out during this period is that despite the reduced number of Bath properties for sale, the number of properties sold remained robust. This surge in demand, despite a drop in available Bath homes, can be attributed to the combination of pent-up demand and the government’s intervention in the property market. Most notably the stamp-duty-holiday incentivised buyers to move quickly before the levy was lifted.
As the dust settled moving into 2022, the property market began to feel as it was coming back towards and ‘normal’ market. The number of homes selling settled down and the general level of properties for sale steadily began to rise. However, as we ended the summer of 2022, the property market was struck twice within a span of 12 months.
The first hit on the market came in the spring of 2022 when then Prime Minister, Liz Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, produced their now infamous mini budget. Following this, there was a five-month period dropped, stooping to an average of 140 sales per month. It started to recover in the spring of 2023, as home sales rose to an average of 223 sales per month, only to be hit again when the increasing interest rates started to really bite in the summer of 2023. Home sales then slumped to 181 sales per month during the summer of 2023.
NUMBER OF BATH HOMES FOR SALE AFTER JANUARY 2024 –
Since January 2024, the number of Bath homes selling has been at an average of 218 homes per month. However, the number of homes for sale has steadily risen to 1,213 in August 2024 alone. The significant increase in supply could be due to various factors, including homeowners taking advantage of high property prices at the moment, an increase in new builds, or even a growing number of properties that failed to sell in previous months/years now being re-listed with a new agent.
PERCENTAGE PROPORTIONS: BATH VS. UK TRENDS –
The second graph below delves into the dynamics here by comparing the same set of numbers to each other and expressing them as a percentage.
By doing this, we can see the proportion of monthly homes sold relative to the number of properties available. This yellow line on the graph represents the % of Bath properties sold SSTC during the month as a proportion of the homes for sale. The red line shows the equivalent figure for the UK average.
The graph reveals important information. Throughout 2020-early 2022, the proportion of UK homes sold in Bath (yellow line) spiked into the mid to high 30% range. This aligns with the earlier observation that despite fewer homes being available, a higher percentage of these homes were being snapped up quickly by buyers wanting to make the most of the government intervention following the pandemic.
However, as we moved to 2022 and beyond, this trend began to reverse. The proportion of homes sold (as a percentage of homes for sale) in bath started to decline and now the figure stands around the mid-teens.
SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BATH HOMEOWNERS? –
The stable number of home sales against a backdrop of increasing supply could be signaling that there is a potential issue. The market may be approaching a tipping point where supply outsees demand and thus prices begin to fall as the market becomes a buyers’ market and there are more options for buyers. This increase in supply means those serious about getting a sale need to make sure they are getting their homes valued and listed at a realistic price mark. Pricing too high in this market will lead buyers to be deterred by other options they have available with such a high supply.
A price too high in this market will lead to long listing times, and price reductions, both of which can deter some buyers as they may assume this is due to an unforeseen issue within the property. Neither of these are wanted by sellers so it is critical that you get that listing price correct.
Also, remember that a longer listing time means that a sale is more likely to fall through, even if a sale is agreed upon. Looking at an examination from Denton House Research using data from TwentyEA, they noted that if a UK home sold within 25 days of the property coming to market, there was a 94% chance of the sale going all the way through to completion. If the sale was agreed upon over 100 days after it was listed on the market, then the chances of actually completing the sale is reduced vastly to 56%.
IN CONCLUSION –
Whilst the Bath property market remains active, ‘this has introduced a new challenge for sellers. To achieve a successful sale, Bath homeowners must pay close attention to market trends and set their prices accordingly. Realistic pricing and an understanding of the broader market dynamics will be vital in navigating this evolving landscape. As the data suggests, the market is still healthy, but the balance of supply and demand is shifting which is making strategic pricing is more critical than ever.
