As a local lettings and estate agent in Bath, it is crucial we take some time at the beginning of the year to pour over last year’s statistics and take a view to what is to come in 2025. Analysing the 2024 property market locally, here in Bath, and nationally allows us to make some predictions for what we think will happen to the property market in 2025.
In 2024, the UK property market recorded 1.2m homes sold subject to contract (SSTC). This represents a 15% increase when compared to 2023, where 1.06m homes went SSTC.
The average price of a property SSTC in 2023 was £354,981 and the average sale agreed price was slightly higher at £361,529. The number of transactions has significantly risen, while the average price paid stayed around the same. That means that while house prices have not really risen, the number of UK homes that sold did significantly. Remember, the best bellwether of the health of the UK property market is not necessarily UK house prices but the number of homes sold.
So, what were the key drivers in this surge?
FALLING MORTGAGE RATES
Lower interest rates made borrowing more accessible. This in turn encouraged buyers who may have been previously hesitant at the higher mortgage rates.
WAGE GROWTH
Rising wages have given potential buyers greater financial confidence, enabling them to consider property purchases.
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT
A stable job market gave a sense of security to buyers, allowing them to make investments.
CHANGING PREFERENCES
Post pandemic adjustment in peoples personal and work lives have been key players in what people want out of a home. A few years ago when Work From Home was encouraged or compulsory, people wanted more space and didn’t have to worry about the commute time. Now, as more people are pushed back into the office, there is a shift again into people needing to move closer to their employers office.
Turning our attention to the local level here in Bath, it is important to recognise that local markets can behave differently from the national trends. In 2023, 1,919 homes sold in Bath for an average of £564,000 at an average of $482/sq.ft. Whilst in 2024, 2,183 homes sold at an average cost of £580,000 with an average of £472/sq.ft.
This is an 11% increase in transactions. So, what for 2025?
LOCAL INFLUENCES SHAPING THE MARKET:
Baths property market doesn’t exist in isolation, it is shaped by a range of local factors that are often similar yet different when compared to the national trends. Changes in employment levels, ongoing infrastructure developments and shifts in the demographic profile all impact the market. Regional policies can also influence market activity. Understanding these nuances is crucial in making an informed decision.
As we move into 2025, the property market here in the UK shows continued promise. Evaluating your property’s position within the Bath market could make all the difference in navigating opportunities or mitigating challenges in the year ahead. While 2024 was strong, it’s critical to go beyond the headlines. Local insights often reveal opportunities that broad trends don’t capture.
The Key to Selling – Realistic Pricing
Looking at the statistics above, over half of the properties listed for sale in Bath go on to sell. This highlights an essential truth about the Bath property market: pricing your home realistically is the single most crucial factor in securing a successful sale. Many estate agents are tempted to overprice properties to win your business, but this approach can significantly hinder your chances of selling, especially in a competitive market like Bath.
Research reveals that properties listed at the right price from the start are far more likely to sell quickly and successfully. For example, homes that sell within the first 25 days of being listed have a 94% likelihood of reaching completion and ensuring the homeowner successfully moves. However, if a property lingers on the market for over 100 days, if the homeowner does agree on a sale, the chances of that sale going on to exchange and complete (i.e. the homeowner moving) plummet dramatically to 56%.
As an experienced local property agent in Bath, we understand the intricacies of our market and can provide honest, expert advice about your property’s value. We aim to help you set a realistic asking price that maximises your chances of selling while achieving a fair and competitive market value. I analyse local market conditions daily and stay up-to-date with shifting trends, ensuring your home is priced to sell – not to sit on the market.
If you’re eager to move and want a reliable, professional approach to selling your home in 2025, we’re here to help. Let’s work together to make your property stand out in Bath’s market, attract motivated buyers and ensure a smooth sale from start to finish. Get in touch today for tailored advice and a strategy to sell your Bath home.
The number of agreed UK property sales up to the 22nd of November 2024 is 18% higher than a year ago. Breaking this down further, as of 22nd November 2024, 1,009,340 homes were sold subject to contract (SSTC), an 18% increase from the number of homes SSTC in the same period of 2023. The average UK selling price has also significantly risen, reaching £361,000 compared to £326,000 in 2023, an 11% rise.
This doesn’t mean house prices have risen by 11%. Across the country, there has been a shift and more high-value properties have been selling this year compared to last. It is due to this factor that using £/sq.ft is a better judge of house price increase. The pound per square foot has risen only by 2.7% over the last year, climbing from £331 to £340 (which is in line with the major house price indicators).
A BUYER’S ADVANTAGE –
Sellers currently face a market where realism is the key to a good, and fast, sale. As of the 22nd November 2024, 2,061 Bath homes had been sold STC, a 14.5% increase from the 1,800 homes sold in the same period last year. The average Bath selling price has risen slightly, reaching £586,652 in 2024, compared to £562,066 in 2023 (a rise of 4.3%).
The £ per square foot on the homes sold STC for Bath has been £472 per square foot in 2024, compared to £482 per square foot in 2023.
In 2023, 59.64% of Bath homes that came to market were successfully sold (completed and exchanged). In 2024, that figure has slipped to 58.94%. This change reflects buyer expectations and affordability shifts, emphasising the need for careful pricing strategies. (Bath – BA1/2 – 1st Jan to Nov 22nd).
National figures showed that 52.96% of properties were sold (exchanged and completed) in 2023, only slightly improving to 53.62% in 2024.
If you think about it, you have just over one in two chances of selling if you put your home on the market; therefore, accurate pricing is more important than ever, but it isn’t the only factor. Homes that stand out in today’s market often do so because of exceptional marketing. Virtual or video tours, high-quality photography, and targeted social media campaigns are no longer optional—they’re essential. For sellers looking to maximise interest and achieve a strong price, presenting their property in the best possible light is a non-negotiable step.
BATHS UNIQUE MARKET DYNAMICS
Bath’s property market has always had its quirks, and this year has been no exemption. Different postcode areas are experiencing varying levels of activity. In some areas of the city (and villages), homes are selling quickly, while in others, buyers have more room to negotiate, whether on price, fixtures, or even completion dates.
This means that flexibility can be an asset for buyers. Expanding your search radius or considering properties slightly outside your initial criteria could reveal opportunities that others have overlooked. For sellers, understanding these local variations is critical to setting the right price and crafting an effective marketing plan.
A Balanced Perspective: The Seller-Buyer Dynamic
It’s worth remembering that over four out of five sellers are also buyers. This dual role often means that what might be perceived as a loss on one side of the transaction can be recouped on the other. A slightly lower sale price on your current property may open the door to negotiating a better deal on your next purchase.
External Factors Shaping the Bath Market
No property market operates in isolation, and Bath is no exception. National and global trends will inevitably influence it.
That said, Bath’s property market has shown resilience in the past, which is likely to continue. While challenges remain, stabilising mortgage rates and a steady economy offer hope for a more active market in the coming months.
Final Thoughts
As Bath’s property market moves into 2025, success will hinge on understanding the current dynamics and being prepared to adapt. For buyers, this means having your finances in order and being ready to act quickly when the right property comes along. For sellers, setting a realistic asking price for your Bath home ensures your property is effectively marketed from day one.
The journey requires a thoughtful approach, whether buying, selling or keeping an eye on the market. There are both opportunities and challenges ahead – but with the right strategy, the path forward is clear.
What’s your perspective on Bath’s property market? Have you noticed similar trends, or do you see things differently?
Are you a Bath homeowner or Landlord looking to sell in 2025?
If the answer is yes, then let us have a look at, on average, how long it takes for you to find a buyer for your Bath property and how long the solicitors will take to help get you moved in.
Independent research from Denton House shows that in the last 12 months, looking at the 1.06m properties sale agreed and the 816k properties exchanged, on average it has taken 73 days from the property coming on the market to the property becoming sold subject to contract (SSTC). This is up 6 days from the 12 months ending in June of this year.
From this point, it has then taken 113 days from the sale being agreed to completion. This is an improvement on the 117 days for the 12 months ending June 2024. The journey is a long one and not guaranteed as nationally, only 53.6% of UK homeowners who placed their homes on the market in 2023/24, have sold and moved. The remaining 46.7% have come off the market unsold.
STEP 1 – FINDING A BUYER
The first stage is to engage an estate agent (naturally, we’re here to assist) who will work with you to develop a pricing and marketing strategy tailored to attract the right buyer for your situation.
Recent data shows that over the last 3 months, a property here in Bath has taken an average of 55 days to reach an agreed sale STC. However, the bath market is far from uniform and each area in Bath has its own micro-market where it can be longer or shorter, remember this is an average.
On top of this, every ‘type’ of house also reflects different data. Let’s break it down.
(Bath centre plus a 3-mile radius).
Under £100k – 10 days
£100k to £200k – 62 days
£200k to £300k – 41 days
£300k to £400k – 65 days
£400k to £500k – 60 days
£500,000 to £1m – 53 days
over £1m – 76 days
STEP 2: INSTRUCTING SOLICITORS AND MORTGAGE BROKERS
Here at Reside Bath, we have our own list of recommended solicitors and mortgage brokers that we can get you in contact with. As the seller, your solicitor will begin preparing the legal documents for your property with your input and then forward this all to the buyers solicitor.
STEP 3: LEGAL WORK AND SURVEYS
After receiving the paperwork, your buyer’s solicitor will request local searches from the local authority and/or land registry to ensure there are no planned developments that could impact on your property. These searches can take a few weeks to complete as during this time the buyer’s solicitor may raise some questions with your solicitor. Simultaneously, a surveyor will inspect your property to confirm to the buyer that it is structurally sound and valued at the correct purchase price.
STEP 4: EXCHANGE OF THE CONTRACTS
Once the mortgage, the survey and the legal paperwork are all cleared and have come back without any issues, both the buyer and the seller can sign the contracts, leading to the ‘Exchange of Contracts’ between solicitors. At this stage, the buyer pays a non-refundable deposit, legally committing both parties to the sale. There is now one last step.
STEP 5: COMPLETION
Completion is when the money and keys are transferred. Typically, this takes place one or two weeks after the exchange of contracts, although, since the pandemic, there has been a shift to completion being on the same day as the exchange of contracts. At this point, the buyer’s solicitor sends the purchase funds to the seller’s solicitor. Once received, the keys are handed over and the sale is completed.
So to reiterate, here in Bath, it currently takes 55 days to get to the end of step 1 (finding a buyer) and a further 126 days from instruction of solicitors to completion (steps 2 to 5).
So, anticipate waiting 5 to 6 months from the point the property goes live on the market to the day that you move out. If you’re considering selling your home here in Bath, or a landlord looking for your next buy-to-let property, feel free to reach out to us.
The Bath Property market has undergone significant changes over the past few years, as depicted in the graphs below. These visual aids capture the trends in the number of properties available for sale and the number of properties sold subject to contract (SSTC) from January 2019-2024. By analysing these graphs, we can gain insight into the evolving dynamics of the local property market and the necessity for Bath homeowners to adopt realistic pricing strategies when bringing their homes to market.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE BATH MARKET DYNAMICS (2019-2024) –
From January 2019 to February 2020 (a normal market), the number of properties for sale in Bath remained relatively stable, at an average of 1,278 homes (bath being BA1/2). This pre-COVID period also showed a steady number of properties being sold each month, with an average of 181 home sales. This indicated a balanced market where the supply of homes was more or less matched by buyer demand.
The Bath property market underwent a noticeable shift with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late March 2020. As the pandemic gripped the nation, the number of properties that sold in April and May 2020 plummeted sharply. This was due to the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic. Many buyers held off amidst the uncertainty.
However, the floodgates opened once the property market lockdown was lifted in May/June 2020. The number of properties coming onto the market between June and August 2020 rose by 27% above the long-term average for that time of year, and the number of homes selling also rose.
In Bath, in the 20 months between May 2020 and December 2021, the average number of Bath homes sold per month was 245, with the biggest month being 342 homes Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC). However, the number of homes for sale slowly dropped throughout the period to an all-time low of just 540 homes for sale in December of 2021.
What stands out during this period is that despite the reduced number of Bath properties for sale, the number of properties sold remained robust. This surge in demand, despite a drop in available Bath homes, can be attributed to the combination of pent-up demand and the government’s intervention in the property market. Most notably the stamp-duty-holiday incentivised buyers to move quickly before the levy was lifted.
As the dust settled moving into 2022, the property market began to feel as it was coming back towards and ‘normal’ market. The number of homes selling settled down and the general level of properties for sale steadily began to rise. However, as we ended the summer of 2022, the property market was struck twice within a span of 12 months.
The first hit on the market came in the spring of 2022 when then Prime Minister, Liz Truss and her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, produced their now infamous mini budget. Following this, there was a five-month period dropped, stooping to an average of 140 sales per month. It started to recover in the spring of 2023, as home sales rose to an average of 223 sales per month, only to be hit again when the increasing interest rates started to really bite in the summer of 2023. Home sales then slumped to 181 sales per month during the summer of 2023.
NUMBER OF BATH HOMES FOR SALE AFTER JANUARY 2024 –
Since January 2024, the number of Bath homes selling has been at an average of 218 homes per month. However, the number of homes for sale has steadily risen to 1,213 in August 2024 alone. The significant increase in supply could be due to various factors, including homeowners taking advantage of high property prices at the moment, an increase in new builds, or even a growing number of properties that failed to sell in previous months/years now being re-listed with a new agent.
PERCENTAGE PROPORTIONS: BATH VS. UK TRENDS –
The second graph below delves into the dynamics here by comparing the same set of numbers to each other and expressing them as a percentage.
By doing this, we can see the proportion of monthly homes sold relative to the number of properties available. This yellow line on the graph represents the % of Bath properties sold SSTC during the month as a proportion of the homes for sale. The red line shows the equivalent figure for the UK average.
The graph reveals important information. Throughout 2020-early 2022, the proportion of UK homes sold in Bath (yellow line) spiked into the mid to high 30% range. This aligns with the earlier observation that despite fewer homes being available, a higher percentage of these homes were being snapped up quickly by buyers wanting to make the most of the government intervention following the pandemic.
However, as we moved to 2022 and beyond, this trend began to reverse. The proportion of homes sold (as a percentage of homes for sale) in bath started to decline and now the figure stands around the mid-teens.
SO, WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BATH HOMEOWNERS? –
The stable number of home sales against a backdrop of increasing supply could be signaling that there is a potential issue. The market may be approaching a tipping point where supply outsees demand and thus prices begin to fall as the market becomes a buyers’ market and there are more options for buyers. This increase in supply means those serious about getting a sale need to make sure they are getting their homes valued and listed at a realistic price mark. Pricing too high in this market will lead buyers to be deterred by other options they have available with such a high supply.
A price too high in this market will lead to long listing times, and price reductions, both of which can deter some buyers as they may assume this is due to an unforeseen issue within the property. Neither of these are wanted by sellers so it is critical that you get that listing price correct.
Also, remember that a longer listing time means that a sale is more likely to fall through, even if a sale is agreed upon. Looking at an examination from Denton House Research using data from TwentyEA, they noted that if a UK home sold within 25 days of the property coming to market, there was a 94% chance of the sale going all the way through to completion. If the sale was agreed upon over 100 days after it was listed on the market, then the chances of actually completing the sale is reduced vastly to 56%.
IN CONCLUSION –
Whilst the Bath property market remains active, ‘this has introduced a new challenge for sellers. To achieve a successful sale, Bath homeowners must pay close attention to market trends and set their prices accordingly. Realistic pricing and an understanding of the broader market dynamics will be vital in navigating this evolving landscape. As the data suggests, the market is still healthy, but the balance of supply and demand is shifting which is making strategic pricing is more critical than ever.
The UK property market has undergone significant shifts since the summer of 2020. This has been driven primarily by the post-lockdown ‘rush to move’ after everyone who’d been stuck inside for 3 months felt they had ‘outgrown’ their homes and were further incentivised by the stamp-duty levy.
Following this rush to move, there have been significant interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation in 2022 & 2023. These changes have had far-reaching implications across the property market and have had a significant impact on both house prices and the overall volume of property transactions.
INTEREST RATE SURGE AND ITS IMPACT:
The initial wave of interest rate hikes began in November 2021, as the Bank of England (BoE) sought to counter the ever-rising inflation post-lockdown, and this continued until the summer of 2023.
There were 14 rises in interest rates during this period – the culmination of which was a peak rate of 5.25%. The Bank of England’s decision to implement such a rigorous monetary policy stemmed from concerns about the rapidly escalating cost of living (now dubbed the ‘cost of living crisis’), the consequence of both domestic and global pressures.
However, the tide began to turn this August as the BoE cut rates slightly to 5% in response to the improvement of the nation’s inflation rates. This reduction was coupled with signs that further cuts could be on the horizon, something that has brought about a sense of cautious optimism in the market. There is, for the first time in many months, a slight glimmer of hope that the worst of the economic fallout may be behind us.
HOW HAS THIS AFFECTED THE LOCAL PROPERTY MARKET HERE IN BATH?
Let us first look at the house prices locally between 2020 and 2024.
The average value of a property in Bath in July 2020 was £347,652. Today, that figure has risen to £432,528 – a rise of 24.42%, significant. So despite predictions that there would be a property market crash of sorts, there hasn’t been. So with prices not dropping, surely it is cash buyers that are keeping the property market afloat? Especially considering the hike in interest rates over the last 4 years.
CASH BUYERS: NOT THE GAME CHANGER WE EXPECTED:
In analysing the performance of the different segments of the British property market during this tumultuous period, one of the more surprising findings is the limited role that cash buyers have played in keeping the Bath property market alive. Traditionally, cash buyers have been perceived as having a significant advantage in house buying when there are periods of high interest. This is due to the lack of financing needed which in turn allows them to be protected from the direct effects of higher borrowing costs. So in theory, this should allow them to dominate the market when mortgage rates soar. So, did the number of cash buyers rise when interest rates began to rise in 2022?
THE PROPORTION OF UK HOME BUYERS WITH CASH HAS INDEED RISEN FROM 20%+ IN 2020/21 TO 30%+ IN 2023/24:
So as the above statement says, there has indeed been an increase in cash buyers, but this has not been the expected avalanche. Despite significant financial advantages, cash buyers did not dramatically alter the market dynamics. Instead, the dictators of the pace of the market turned out to be those who were reliant on mortgages. So, even as the cost of borrowing increased, there continued to be many mortgage-backed buyers and the cash buyers didn’t dictate the market as expected. This trend truly underlines the critical role mortgage buyers play in shaping market conditions.
Locally here are the figures:
In 2020, 27.57% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Bath and North East Somerset, 28.6% of buyers were cash buyers.
In 2021, 28.06% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Bath and North East Somerset, 31.2% of buyers were cash buyers.
In 2022, 27.79% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Bath and North East Somerset, 32.1% of buyers were cash buyers.
In 2023, 32.94% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Bath and North East Somerset, 38.9% of buyers were cash buyers.
In 2024 YTD, 31.15% of UK home buyers were cash buyers, whilst in Bath and North East Somerset, 35.0% of buyers were cash buyers.
Locally in Bath and Northeast Somerset, we also saw a growth in cash buyers – yet again, nothing groundbreaking!
MORTGAGE STRESS-TESTING AND MARKET STABILITY:
So, why were those who predicted a significant crash in the market so wrong, despite the increased mortgage rates? Well, mostly it was down to the effectiveness of the mortgage market review stress testing rules introduced in 2014 for borrowers after the global financial crisis of 2008. These rules, designed to ensure that borrowers could withstand higher interest rates, have been instrumental in maintaining stability in the property market. Even as mortgage rates more than quadrupled from their lows, over three quarters of UK’s local authorities saw house prices increase between the spring of 2022 and the spring of 2024.
This stability is further evidenced by the relatively low levels of repossessions compared to the aftermath of the 08/09 financial crisis. In the 4 years following the global market crash of 2008, 113,374 homes were repossessed in the UK. In the Covid years of 2020-2023, that number was 7,379.
Alongside this, strong wage growth (up from £31k a year to £35k) during this period and lender forbearance, have also played a pivotal role in supporting those who borrowed during the challenging period.
These factors collectively prevented the kind of widespread distress that many feared would occur as rates climbed.
AFFORDABILITY AND THE SHIFT IN BUYER PREFERENCES:
While house prices have held sturdy in most places, affordability has continued to be a significant concern for buyers, particularly in more expensive markets such as London. The term ‘race-for-space’ came about from the pandemic where buyers, held up in their smaller more confined homes in the big cities, sought to move further afield and gain more space for their money given many were working remotely and no longer needed to be held up in a commutable location. This rush in migration from urban areas to suburban or even rural areas has been a defining characteristic of the property market over the last few years. As rates have continued to rise, this trend has continued and even gained further momentum.
In the more expensive locations, where the cost of living and property prices were already high, the increase in mortgage rates has made buying a home even more challenging for many. As a result, these sorts of areas have seen a shift in the buyer demographic. Those less affected by higher rates—such as wealthier individuals or those moving from more affordable regions—continue to purchase, while others have been priced out.
SALES VOLUMES VS. PRICES: A COMPLEX RELATIONSHIP:
As we evaluate the performance of the UK housing market – it is evident that whilst prices have remained strong, the volume of sales has decreased in 2023 when compared to the surge that we witnessed in 2021.
Back in 2021, sales transactions peaked at approximately 1.4million, a significant increase when compared to the previous year. However, by the time 2023 rolled around, this figure had decreased to around 1.02million.
Despite the rise in interest rates during 2023, the transaction levels remained in line with long-term trends (1.06 million transactions on average per year between 2008 to 2019), highlighting the current resilience of the housing market. Current projections for the 2024 housing market are suggesting we may reach 1.15 million sales, indicating that the property market continues to be stable and aligns closely with historical norms.
The persistence of strong prices, despite lower volumes of transactions, suggests a degree of pent-up demand. If Bath buyers perceive that interest rates have stabilised or are beginning to decline, we could see a significant increase in transaction activity. This potential recovery is likely to be the most pronounced in regions where affordability remains a key factor, and where the desire for more space continues to drive buyer behaviour.
LOOKING AHEAD – A PIVOTAL MOMENT FOR THE BATH MARKET:
As we move forward, the property market in the UK looks to be held at a crucial juncture. The market is currently showing positive signs as we get to the latter end of 2024. Listings are up by 7.2% YTD compared to pre-pandemic levels and gross sales, 22% higher than the same time in 2023. Net sales have also been surging, a 28% increase compared to the same period from last year. Additionally, the 2.6% rise in sales price/sq.ft since January indicates a steady increase in demand.
Coupled with the recent rate cut and better-than-expected inflation figures, this may signal the beginning of a more stable period for the UK housing market. If the financial markets prediction of another cut by the end of the year to interest rates, then we may see renewed confidence among buyers.
However, it’s essential to recognise that the landscape has changed. The experience of the past four years has reinforced the importance of affordability, the resilience of stress-tested borrowers, and the critical role of mortgage buyers in setting market dynamics. As estate agents, understanding these shifts is crucial in navigating the evolving market and advising clients effectively.
As a Bath homeowner looking to sell, it’s crucial to approach the market with a realistic mindset. With only 53% of properties that come onto the market successfully reaching a completed house sale and move, the odds of selling can feel like a flip of a coin, (12 months to 23rd August 2024, of the 1,420,486 homes that left UK estate agents books, 798,886 homes exchanged and completed, and 710,620 homes withdrew unsold).
To ensure you’re on the right side of that coin, it’s vital to set a competitive price and present your property in the best possible light as this can significantly increase your chances of securing a sale and achieving your moving goals.
In Bath and similar towns and cities, where affordability and the search for space are particularly relevant, the insights gained from this period of upheaval will be invaluable. By staying attuned to these trends and anticipating the needs of our Bath clients, we can offer informed guidance in a time of change.
In conclusion, while the past four years have been challenging for the Bath and UK property market, they have also demonstrated its underlying strength and adaptability. As we potentially enter a more stable period, there is cause for cautious optimism. By understanding the factors that have shaped recent performance, we can better navigate the road ahead and continue to support our clients through whatever challenges and opportunities the future may hold.
If you would like to discuss anything about the Bath property market, please do not hesitate to call us at the office.
