or ‘how to avoid a rental property shortage again in 2023’.
In 2022, the shortage of rental properties simply couldn’t satisfy tenant demand, driving up rents to unprecedented levels. How can we avoid this happening again in 2023? Here are 3 good places to start…
Anybody who enjoys surfing the property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and On the Market) will have observed an emerging trend that the number of properties available to rent in Bath has dropped considerably in the last couple of years.
This reduction has been seen all around the UK as well. For example, on 1st November 2020, there were 372,931 properties to rent on portals. By the 1st November 2021, that had dropped to 275,650; by the 1st November 2022, that had fallen to 171,224.
That doesn’t mean the number of privately rented homes in the country has dropped by over half. Fewer properties are coming onto the market to rent. I will explain why in this article.
For tenants, especially over the last 12 months, it has become progressively more challenging to find a rental home, thus making the rent they must pay go up. This state of affairs in the property market isn’t showing an indication of getting any easier either, making for a hard time for Bath renters.
Several different components are making the perfect storm in the UK property market.
Firstly, the number of households in the UK.
The UK has not been building enough homes for the last 20 years. I appreciate that parts of Bath seem like one huge building site, yet as a country, we are woefully undersupplied with property to live in. This has meant house prices continue to rise due to demand.
The government have known about this issue for decades. The Barker Review of Housing Supply published in 2004 stated that the UK had experienced a long-term upward trend of 2.4% in real house prices since the mid-1970s because of a lack of house building. The report stated that 240,000 houses needed to be built each year to keep up with demand.
(i.e. 45 years multiplied by 75,000 missing homes per year)
Several years ago, the government set a target to build 300,000 new homes each year to address this issue.
However, in 2019/20, the actual number of homes delivered stood at just 243,770. In 2020/21, the number of properties built dropped to only 216,000 new homes. In a nutshell, there are fewer available homes to buy, meaning fewer available homes to rent.
Secondly, Bath tenants are staying in their rental homes longer.
The average rent of a Bath property in November 2022 is £2,245 per calendar month (up from £1,409 per calendar month in February 2020) – quite a rise!
These numbers translate into Bath renters not being able to pay the rent and be able to save for a deposit, or if they are saving, it is taking a lot longer to save for a deposit due to the cost-of-living crisis and higher rent costs.
Also, many Bath tenants have decided to stay in their existing rental homes because of the rent rises. Many landlords are less inclined to raise the rent on an existing property when they have a decent tenant who keeps the property in good condition and pays rent on time. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that rent arrears in those properties are dropping as tenants know if they don’t pay the rent, the chances are they will have trouble finding another property, and if they do, they will have to pay a lot for their next rental home.
For Bath landlords, this is all positive news – tenants are staying for longer in their rental properties, arrears are lower, and void periods are less likely. When it comes to the market there is less competition (because of the decrease in the availability of Bath rental properties) so this makes the investment an even better bet.
Thirdly, landlords are selling up on the back of recently increased house prices.
It would be difficult for Bath buy-to-let landlords to ignore the rising property prices in recent years.
For some buy-to-let landlords, especially those who were classified as ‘accidental landlords’ (an accidental landlord is a landlord who never chose to become a landlord, it was just after the Credit Crunch of 2008/9, they found themselves unable to sell their property, so they temporarily let their own property out), they chose to ‘cash in’ on the higher house prices. This would have also contributed to the lack of available Bath homes for rent.
Landlords have a few costs to consider before investing in buy-to-let, including everything from regular refurbishment costs, buildings insurance, letting agents’ fees, income tax, and not forgetting stamp duty.
Talking of costs, one issue some Bath landlords are facing is their failure to plan financially for the recent mortgage interest rate rises. Some landlords may have become complacent to the ultra-low Bank of England base rates we have had since 2008 and, therefore, may need to sell their rental property, which, if bought by a first-time buyer, will remove another property from the Private Rented Sector.
Another hurdle to jump is the proposed new regulations requiring better energy efficiency for rental properties. It is proposed that all new tenancies must have at least a minimum of a ‘C’ rating for their EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) from 2025 (and 2028 for all existing tenancies).
Therefore, as a buy-to-let Bath landlord, it is wise to do your research to make sure the buy-to-let opportunity is correct for your rental portfolio, particularly when it comes to weathering any impending financial storms.
Landlords can earn money from their buy-to-let investments in two ways. One is the property’s capital growth, and the other is the rental return (often expressed as a yield). In 96% of buy-to-let investments, there is an inverse relationship between capital growth and yield (i.e. properties that tend to go up in value quicker will have lower yields 96% of the time – and vice versa).
Getting the best balance of yield and capital growth depends on your current and future needs from your Bath buy-to-let investment.
The continued shortage of Bath rental properties means it will be more difficult than ever to find a Bath property to rent, and so rents will continue to grow.
Unlike in Scotland, England and Wales do not have rent controls, with Westminster ruling out the possibility of introducing rent control here to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
You would think rent controls would be a no-brainer, yet economists from around the world have proved for the last 75 years that rent controls might help tenants in the short term, yet ultimately it drives landlords to sell their investments in the long term, thus reducing the stock of available properties to rent out (not great for future tenants).
Landlords who persevere with their Bath buy-to-let properties or become a Bath buy-to-let landlord are set to benefit because they have an asset in very high demand.
The housing shortage, not to mention the other issues discussed above that are affecting the supply of rental properties, is unlikely to be fixed anytime soon!
In conclusion, the Bath rental market is a constantly changing picture. What is known is that the supply of rental properties is far from what is needed, which can only be to the benefit of buy-to-let investors rather than of tenants renting.
I see buy-to-let as a long-term investment. Everyone reading this knows that the real value in your buy-to-let investment is playing the long game, allowing your Bath buy-to-let investment to grow over time. Like the crypto or stock market, getting sucked in by get-rich-quick schemes that are selling ‘apparent quick wins’ in property investment is very easy.
Being a Bath landlord is undoubtedly a challenge. The glory years of making money from ‘any old property’ are certainly in the past. With increased legislation and taxation from Government and the cost-of-living crisis (which will result in some Bath tenants struggling to pay their rent), times are challenging for many landlords.
Then newspapers are full of stories of landlords being pushed into the red as mortgage rates continue to rise. A landlord last summer could have fixed their 5-year buy-to-let rate with a 25% deposit at 1.86%, whilst today the best 5-year deal is with Barclays at 4.36%. This increase will add more than £246 per month to the landlord’s mortgage bill for the average UK buy-to-let property.
Next, the press is reporting in Q2 2022 (when compared to Q2 2021), landlord possession claims for arrears increased from 6,997 to 18,201 properties (a rise of 160%), property orders from 5,431 to 14,319 (an increase of 164%), warrants from 3,786 to 7,728 (a rise of 104%) and landlord repossessions from 1,582 to 4,900 (a rise of 210%).
This is on the back of the Section 24 tax changes made a few years ago and ahead of expensive energy efficiency upgrades that the Government is expected to legislate for in the coming 12 months.
Doesn’t sound good for landlords.
Until you look past the headlines and look at the actual detail.
79.93% of UK buy-to-let (BTL) mortgages are interest-only mortgages (compared to 12.29% of homebuyers), meaning the repayments are considerably lower than typical homebuyer mortgages. Therefore, the rise in interest rates won’t hit landlords’ profitability as much as many thought initially.
93.21% of all new BTL mortgages agreed in the last two years have been on a fixed rate mortgage, and 73.27% of all existing BTL mortgages are on a fixed rate. So, the increase in mortgage payments will only affect one in four landlords on variable-rate mortgages.
Let us not forget that less than one in three landlords have a BTL mortgage, meaning two out of three landlords aren’t affected by these interest rate rises.
Those possession orders mentioned above look high until you realise that there are 4.4 million properties in the private rented sector. That means only 2.04% of UK rental properties had arrears bad enough for landlords (or agents) to start possession proceedings to evict the tenant. Also, only 0.045% of tenants were evicted through the courts in a calendar year.
Talking of arrears, recent studies using statistics from the Government and other letting industry sources show that …
Next, the potential cost of upgrading rental properties’ energy efficiency.
The proposed changes in the MEES regulations require a minimum energy efficiency (measured by its Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)) to a ‘C’ rating on new tenancies from 2025 and existing tenancies by 2028. That will cost, on average, £10,000+ per property.
Yet it cannot be forgotten when the rules changed in 2018 properties had to have a minimum EPC rating of E in England and Wales to be legally compliant. If a landlord of an ‘F’ or ‘G’ rated rental property could prove that it would cost more than £3,500 to make those improvements to their EPC rating, then that was the most the landlord had to pay. No doubt something similar will take place in the future proposed legislation.
Then there is the profitability of renting. Rental yields are the primary guide to profitability in buy-to-let.
The average yields being achieved in Bath today are …
Yet investing in buy-to-let isn’t just about the yield.
Demand from tenants plays a massive part in the success or failure of your buy-to-let investment, so other yardsticks, such as void periods, should be considered. There is no point in securing a higher-yielding rental property if that buy-to-let investment remains empty.
My research has found that the Bath overall void period average so far is 41.4% lower than 18 months ago, reducing from 29 days in April 2021 to 17 days in September 2022 (the void period being the time it takes from the date of an old tenant moving out until the new tenant moves in).
Finally, buy-to-let investment is also an excellent hedge against inflation compared to other investments. If you would like more information on that, drop me a line, as it’s too long to post here.
The next few years will be challenging for everyone. Still, with the advice and opinion of a decent Bath letting agent to guide and support you on your buy-to-let journey, buy-to-let will continue to be a profitable investment.
You need to review your rental portfolio regularly. See how your portfolio measures up against yield vs capital growth see-saw. Review your mortgage financing and EPC status of your portfolio.
If you would like a no-obligation chat with me to discuss your options as a new potential landlord or an existing landlord with a rental portfolio, then let’s talk.
The cost-of-living predicament is threatening the budgets of many Bath households.
Inflation is running at 7.8%, yet the best savings rates in the market are only 2.75% (because of low Bank of England interest rates). This means that the value of people’s savings is falling fast.
To add insult to injury, the possibility of a recession on the horizon could add another nail in the coffin of people’s wealth and savings.
Looking back at the last recession (ignoring the 2020 Covid recession), the Stock Market (FTSE index) dropped 40.1% during the Credit Crunch (2008/9) — scarcely a soothing thought if you worry about a recession looming in the next couple of years.
A recession can have a catastrophic impact on household budgets, as a weaker economy characteristically means that salaries drop, and people get made redundant.
Bath rentals aren’t perfect, yet in many ways, they go a long way to help – let me tell you why.
1. One of the most significant benefits of investing in residential property is to hedge against inflation. An ‘inflation hedge’ is an investment that defends against the decreased purchasing power of your money that results from the loss of its worth/value due to inflation.
The last time the UK suffered high and persistent inflation was the 1970s.
In 1973, the average British house was worth £9,942. In 1980, that same house was worth £23,287. If the same £9,942 had been invested instead in the stock market in 1973, it would have been worth £19,384 in 1980.
So how did that compare to inflation?
Neither property nor the stock market beat inflation in those seven years (as the goods and services of that £9,942 in 1973 had risen to £25,897 by 1980).
But investing in the stock market between 1973 and 1980, that stock market investor would have lost 25.2% of their investment in ‘real terms’, compared with only 10.1% for property investors.
However, there was the bonus of seven years’ worth of rent!
To give you some idea of what that would be worth in today’s figures (even if the rent didn’t go up during that time frame) …
2. Rental properties have repetitive, regular monthly income, whilst dividends from the stock market are dependent on there being profits which, in a recession, can be hit and miss.
3. Existing Bath landlords know that the rents their rental properties achieve don’t historically decline during recessions in the medium term.
And even if average rents do go down, every rent is fixed at the start of the tenancy. Also, it is infrequent for a tenant to negotiate a reduction in rent mid-tenancy even if average rents did drop.
4. Property prices sometimes fall during recessions.
Dropping from £253,777 at the peak in September 2007 to £204,700 in May 2009 (before they started to rise again).
Yet as I stated above, the Stock Market dropped 40.1% with the Credit Crunch. Also previously, the Stock Market dropped 36% on Black Monday before the early 1990’s recession and 55.3% in 1974.
Which sort of drop would you prefer?
5. (Almost) guaranteed rental payments. Insurance can be taken out for rental payments (you can’t get that on stocks and shares). Also, the government will cover most (or all) of the rent when someone is made redundant and needs to apply for social security.
6. For those Bath landlords who take a mortgage, inflation can be a benefit. The first is the effect of inflation on mortgage debt. As Bath house prices rise over time, it reduces the loan to value percentage of your mortgage debt and increases your equity. You will receive a lower interest rate when you re-mortgage in the future because of the lower loan to value percentage.
Also, as the equity in your Bath rental property increases, assuming you fix your mortgage, your payments stay the same.
Finally, inflation also helps Bath buy-to-let landlords because rents tend to increase with inflation. So as rents go up, your fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage payments stay the same, creating the prospect of more significant profit from your buy-to-let investment.
Yet, there are downsides to renting.
Rent arrears can be a worry. However, during 2021, landlords who used a letting agent were, according to an investigation from Denton House Research, 272.5% less likely to be in arrears of two months or more.
One of the biggest reasons is the more stringent tenant referencing that letting agents tend to do compared to landlords who do it themselves. At our agency, we like to reference tenants carefully for job security, stability, and any history of non-payment on rents, always liaising with previous landlords/agents to see they were a good tenant.
That is why many tenants with a poor tenancy record are attracted to properties that are not through agents, as they know most (not all) DIY landlords don’t reference their tenants as thoroughly as letting agents do. Solid referencing is not a 100% guarantee you won’t get rent arrears or have your rental property trashed, yet it will go a long way to mitigate it.
One of the things about investing in Bath rental properties is that buy-to-let investors have more control over their returns than stock market investors do. Buy-to-let provides long-term stability and constant income to counterweight the massive swings seen in the FTSE stock market.
You must make your own decision when investing in the private rental market in Bath. If you’d like to chat over the phone for five or ten minutes to discuss where I would be investing in the Bath property market, don’t hesitate to send me a message or pick up the phone.
How are you planning for the spectre of a potential recession?
With inflation and the cost-of-living crisis, some say this could cause property values to drop, by between 10% and 20% in the next 12 to 18 months.
There can be no doubt that the current Bath property market is very interesting.
At the time of writing, there are only 334 properties for sale in Bath (the long-term 15-year average is between 870 and 900), meaning house prices have gone up considerably.
According to the Land Registry…
So, as Robert Kiyosaki says, ‘the best way to predict the future is to look to the past’. I need to look at what caused the last property crash in 2008 and how that compares to today.
One reason mentioned as a possible cause of a crash is the rise in the Bank of England interest rates affecting homeowners’ mortgages.
Higher mortgage rates mean homeowners will have to pay a lot more on their mortgage payments, leaving less for other household essentials. In 2007 (and the 1989 property crash), many Bathonians put their houses up for sale to downsize to try and reduce their mortgage payments.
Also, just under 19 out of 20 (93.2%) of all UK house purchases in 2021 fixed their mortgage rate.
So, in the short to medium-term (two to five years), most homeowners won’t see a rise in mortgage payments for many years. Also, 27.8% of all UK house purchases were 100% cash (i.e. no mortgage).
Yet some people say it will be a problem when all these homeowners come off their fixed rate. The mortgage lending rules changed in 2014, and every person taking out a mortgage would have been assessed at application as to whether they could afford their mortgage payments at mortgage rates of 5% to 6% rates, not the 2% to 3% they may well be paying now.
No pundit says the Bank of England interest rates will go above 2% with a worst-case scenario of 3%. If the Bank of England did raise interest rates to 3%, homeowners would only be paying 4.5% to 5.5% on their mortgages and thus well within the stress test range made at the time of their mortgage application.
This means the probability of a mass sell-off of Bath properties or Bath repossessions because of interest rate rises (both of which cause house prices to drop) is much lower.
Another reason being bandied about by some people for another house price crash is the ratio of average house prices compared to average wages.
The higher the ratio, the less affordable property is. In 2000, the UK average house price to average salary ratio was 5.30 (i.e. the average UK house was 5.3 times more than the average UK salary). At its peak just before the last property crash in 2008, the ratio reached 8.64.
The ratio now is 8.85, so some commentators are beginning to think we’re in line for another house price crash. However, I must disagree with them because mortgage rates are much lower today than in 2007. For example…
So, whilst the house price/salary ratio is the same as the last property crash in 2008, mortgages today are proportionally 71.1% cheaper.
Another reason for a property crash in 2008 was the reckless lending practices in the run-up to that crash.
The first example of reckless lending was self-certified mortgages. A self-certified mortgage is when the lender doesn’t require proof of income.
So, when the economy got a little sticky in 2008, the people that didn’t have the income they said they had to pay for their mortgages (because they were self-certified) promptly put their properties on the market.
The banks’ second aspect of reckless lending was how much they lent buyers to buy their homes. Today, banks want first-time buyers to have at least a 10% deposit and ideally more. There are 95% mortgages available now (meaning the first-time buyer only requires a 5% deposit), yet they are pretty challenging to obtain.
Back in 2005/6/7, Northern Rock was allowing first-time buyers to borrow 125% of the value of their home. Yes, first-time buyers got 25% cashback on their mortgage!
In 2007, 9.5% of all mortgages were 95%, and 6.1% of mortgages were 100% to 125%.
When the value of a property goes below what is owed on the mortgage, this is called negative equity. A lot of Bath homeowners with negative equity (or who were getting close to negative equity) in 2008 panicked because of the Credit Crunch and put their houses up for sale.
To give you an idea of what happened last year (2021) regarding mortgage lending, only 2.4% of mortgages were 95%, and 0.2% of mortgages were 100%. This is because the mortgage lending rules were tightened in 2014.
Well, in a nutshell, a lot more Bath properties came onto the market at the same time in 2008, flooding the Bath property market with properties to sell.
Meanwhile, mortgages became a lot harder to obtain (because it was the Credit Crunch), so we had reduced demand for Bath property.
Prices will drop when we have an oversupply and reduced demand for something. Bath property prices fell by between 16% and 19% (depending on the property type) between January 2008 and May 2008.
So, what were the numbers of properties for sale in Bath during the last housing market crash?
This vast jump in supply and the reduction in demand caused Bath house prices to drop in 2008.
Compared with today, there are only 334 properties for sale in Bath, whilst the long term 15-year average is between 870 and 900 properties for sale.
The Bath house price explosion since we came out of Lockdown 1 has been caused by a shortage of Bath homes for sale (as mentioned above) and increased demand from buyers (the opposite of 2008).
However, while there are early signs the discrepancy of supply and demand for Bath properties is starting to ease, this takes a while before it has any effect on the property market – so it will be some time before it takes effect.
This will mean buyer demand will ease off whilst the number of properties to buy (i.e. supply) increases. This should gradually bring the Bath property market back in line with long-term levels, rather than the housing market crash.
My advice is to keep an eye on the number of properties for sale in Bath at any one time and only start to worry if it goes beyond the long-term average mentioned above.
But before I go, I need to chat about what inflation and the cost of living will do to the Bath property market.
There is no doubt that cost-of-living increases will have a dampening effect on buyer demand. If people have less money, they won’t be able to afford such high mortgages. This will slow Bath house price growth, especially with Bath first-time buyers.
Yet, the reduction in first-time buyers is being balanced out by an increase in landlords’ buying, especially at the lower end of the market.
This, in turn, will stabilise the middle to upper Bath property market. This means the values of such properties (mainly Bath owner-occupiers) will see greater stability and a buyer for their home, should they wish to take the next step on the property ladder.
I see new and existing buy-to-let Bath landlords come back into the market to add rental properties to their portfolios. As the competition with first-time buyers is not so great, they’re not being outbid as much.
Yet, more importantly, residential property is a good hedge against inflation.
Firstly, in the medium term, property values tend to keep up with inflation.
Secondly, inflation benefits both landlords and existing homeowners, with the effect of inflation on mortgage debt. As Bath house prices rise over time, it reduces the loan to value percentage of your mortgage debt and increases your equity. When the landlord/homeowner comes to re-mortgage in the future, they will receive a lower interest rate.
Thirdly, as the equity in your Bath property increases, your fixed-rate mortgage payments stay the same.
Finally, inflation also helps Bath buy-to-let landlords. This is because rents tend to increase with inflation. So as rents go up, your fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage payments stay the same, creating the prospect of more significant profit from your buy-to-let investment.
There has been a rise in demand for rental properties and an 8.9% fall in the number of private rented properties in Bath, which has caused Bath rents to rise by 8.8% in the last year – a new all-time high.
The National Residential Landlords Association asked the respected economics think tank, Capital Economics, to carry out research on the UK rental market. It found that demand for homes in the private rented sector needs to increase by 227,000 homes per year if the current trends in the property market continue (growth of the population, Brits living longer, the lack of new homes building and the reduction in social housing).
So, based on those numbers, Bath needs to have an additional 369 private rented properties per year.
The problem is the number of private rented properties in Bath has reduced from 11,553 in 2017 to 10,936 in 2021, a net loss of 617.
Section 24 was introduced in 2017 to level the playing field on the taxation of property between homeowners and landlords. Section 24 stops landlords from offsetting their buy-to-let mortgage costs against the profits from their rental property. Interestingly, no other kind of UK business is affected by the Section 24 taxation. In other words, whatever other form of business you might be in, be it butcher, baker or candlestick maker, every other business can offset their finance costs against their profits, except buy-to-let.
The issue caused by Section 24 Tax is that some landlords ended up paying more income tax than they really made in profit after paying their buy-to-let mortgages. Meaning on the back of rising house prices in the last five years, some Bath landlords have sold their buy-to-let investments.
When someone buys a property, they normally must pay a tax to the Government for the privilege. This tax is called Stamp Duty. Yet landlords must pay an additional 3% stamp duty supplement on top of that when they purchase a buy-to-let property. Evidence suggests some Bath landlords have decided to hold off or scale back buying additional buy-to-let properties for their portfolio because of the thousands of extra pounds that landlords have to pay to buy the rental property.
Some Bath landlords are converting their long-term rental properties into short-term furnished holiday and AirBnB properties. Whilst the hassle, stress and service levels are much higher, these types of properties do tend to make more money and aren’t as heavily taxed as normal lets. When properties convert to short-term lets, it removes another property out of the general supply chain of long-term rental properties.
With more than 170 pieces of legalisation, and new laws being added each year, the burden on landlords is huge. On the horizon is the Renters Reform Bill which will remove no fault evictions. Also, all rental properties with an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of below a ‘C’ will have to be improved (i.e. money spent on them) by the landlord. Hence why some landlords have been selling their rental properties with low EPC ratings in the last 18 months.
There are some Bath landlords who are classed as ‘Accidental Landlords’. In 2008/9, with a slowing property market and house price values dropping in the order of 16% to 19% (depending on the type of property), some Bath homeowners decided to let their home out as opposed to selling it at a loss. But with the price booms of the last 18 months, many decided to cash in on the higher property prices and sell – again taking another private rental property out of the system.
Even with better provision of affordable social housing and higher rates of owner occupation in Bath (rising from 56.22% of homes in Bath being owner occupied in 2017 to 58.28% in 2021), demand for private rental property continues to outstrip supply.
There are many reasons behind this including …
Quite simply – Bath rents have rocketed. They are 8.8% higher today than the spring of 2020 … and that’s on the back of rents being 9.7% higher in spring 2020, compared to spring 2019.
The severe shortage of housing in the private rented sector is pushing up rents in Bath as demand continues to grow. Many Bath people are finding it hard work to find appropriate accommodation at a reasonable rent, and with mounting numbers of tenants predicted to continue, this situation will only get worse unless more houses are built.
My heart goes out to those Bath tenants struggling with the cost-of-living crisis only to then be hit by higher rents.
Yet, these higher rents are now enticing new landlords back into the Bath buy-to-let market because of the higher returns.
With higher inflation, property investment has often been seen as a safe harbour to invest one’s money in. With the bonus of rising yields (because of the increase in rents) together with the nervousness of the Bank of England to increase interest rates too much because of the issues in Eastern Europe, this could be the start of a second renaissance in the Bath buy-to-let market.
If you have concerns about the issues in legislation and taxation, then the advantage of employing a qualified letting agent, with the choice of property, what you pay for it and how it’s managed, will go a long way to mitigate them.
If you would like to discuss any aspect of this article, you’re very welcome to drop me a message or call me.
Nationally, the average length of time it takes from agreeing the sale of a property to the keys being handed over is 111 days (down from 117 days last year). In Bath, we are just above the national average at 112 days.
So why does it take 16 weeks, when all that is required is for lawyers to look at some paperwork and get a mortgage? Also, what can Bath homebuyers and sellers do to speed this up?
The legal process to buy and sell a UK property is called conveyancing. The conveyancing system itself hasn’t really changed in hundreds of years. After the housing market was reopened after the first lockdown in the spring of 2020, the property market returned with a bang, helped on by the stamp duty holiday.
In 2021, the number of properties selling in Bath skyrocketed, e.g. by 96% in June 2021 and by 65% in March 2021. Many conveyancers and solicitors had to sort the legal paperwork out for upwards of 120 to 150 properties each at any one time.
For years, conveyancers have complained of overwork and underpay. Conveyancing is seen as the Cinderella of the legal profession. This workload was the straw that broke the camel’s back, making many conveyancers leave the profession and go into better paid legal work, like corporate law.
Also, the legal process of conveyancing has built-in inefficiencies, and the conveyancing profession has been relatively slow to innovate. However, there are some excellent tech solutions that are being slowly rolled out across the industry to make the process more efficient and effective.
If you are buying or selling your Bath property as we speak, you won’t be able to wait for the conveyancing profession to be revamped, yet you can be as pre-emptive as possible to get your Bath house sale through earlier.
In a nutshell, make sure you have all the paperwork sorted on your home before you put it on the market. Next, get the ball rolling on your mortgage. If you receive some paperwork, read it, check it, sign it and send it back in a day; do not leave it a week. Finally, always communicate frequently with your estate agent and conveyancer.
When you instruct a solicitor, most will request money to start the ball rolling for searches and disbursements. They won’t lift a finger until that is paid.
You will have to prove who you are in the conveyancing process, so your conveyancer will ask you to show them proof of ID and address. If you are buying, they will need to prove you have the funds/deposit to buy the home (and if your deposit is coming from family/friends, then they are required to write a letter to that effect).
A couple of years ago, the Government set up the Home Buying and Selling Group to find the answer to this problem. Chaired by the well-known property guru Kate Faulkner, it is looking at an amalgamated Seller’s Information Pack (SIPs) and an IT-based single platform to share and communicate that SIP between buyers, sellers, their conveyancers, the estate agent, mortgage providers and brokers and finally surveyors.
The advantage of the SIP is that it can be created before the buyer has been found, meaning property buyers would be more knowledgeable when making an offer. Also, once the sale has been agreed upon, the SIP could be sent straightaway electronically to the buyer’s legal team (from the seller’s legal team) to start the procedure of asking for searches and raising inquiries.
So, before the SIP becomes mandatory, there are things everyone can do to ensure they secure the home of their dreams quicker.
I recommend that the seller, the agent and the conveyancer start to liaise with each other to get the key information on the property being sold as quickly as possible. Then once a buyer is found, I believe it is vital that the agent regularly communicates with all the stakeholders in the chain to ensure everyone is playing their part to expedite the sale.
In the future, utilising technology and every agent/conveyancer preparing information upfront with the SIP will drastically reduce the time it takes between agreeing a sale and the keys/monies handed over.
The conveyancing process will have to change to meet the needs of the 21st Century, but how long that will take is the big question.
The UK is currently experiencing its highest inflation rate since the early 1990s. This increase in prices has primarily come about by the combination of an increase in demand for goods and services from consumers following lockdown last year together with global supply chain disruptions.
Most economists weren’t too concerned about this increase in the inflation rate as the very same thing happened in the early 1990s following the Credit Crunch with a similar rise in demand and supply chain issues. Thankfully, back in the early 1990s, inflation returned to lower levels quite quickly. However, the situation in Eastern Europe now could change matters.
The crisis in Eastern Europe has sparked even further rises in crude oil (which diesel and petrol are made from), gas and grain prices as pressure on supply chains around the world increases.
In my previous articles, I suggested UK inflation would rise to around 7% in the spring and drop back to 5% in the autumn and as we entered 2023, be approximately 3% to 4%.
Yet, with these issues, inflation could rise to 8% to 9% by late spring and still be around 6% to 7% in autumn, well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.
This is because ‘real’ UK household incomes characteristically have been the most consistent lead indicator of growth (or a drop) in house prices. This is because growing inflation erodes the value of money you earn, which reduces its buying power. When the cash in your pocket has a lower spending power, people tend to spend less when they buy or rent a home (and vice versa).
Next month, Income Tax thresholds will be frozen, and National Insurance contributions are increasing. Collectively, all these issues will create a drop of around 2% to 2.5% in the real disposable income of Britain’s households in 2022 (real disposable income – i.e. somebody’s take-home wages after tax and the effects of inflation are considered).
With less money in people’s pockets, their inclination to spend the money they do have could also be curtailed. Whilst savings are at an all-time high, many will decide to sit on the cash instead of spending it, especially as consumer confidence has dropped to minus 26 on the GfK index (whatever that means! But in all seriousness… more on that below).
All this can only mean… there is going to be a house price crash.
My heart goes out to people caught up in the awful humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe. For the purposes of this article, however, I need to respectfully put that to one side for just a moment.
This blog is about the Bath property market, and Bathonians want to know what will happen to the Bath property market.
In the first half of the article, I looked at the impending 2 to 2.5% fall in real disposable incomes during 2022. I appreciate it’s going to be tough for many families in Bath. Yet, it is always important to consider what has happened in times gone by:
1982 – a drop of 2.3% in real disposable income
1992 – a drop of 3.7% in real disposable income
2008 – a drop of 5.8% in real disposable income
Yes, it’s going to be tough, but we got through 1982, 1992 and 2008 – and so we shall in 2022/23.
Next: the price of petrol is very high compared to a year ago.
The average price of unleaded petrol is £1.51/litre today, quite a jump from the £1.21/litre a year ago. But here is an interesting fact, petrol was a lot more expensive (in real terms) in 2011 than today. In TODAY’s money, a litre of unleaded petrol in 2011 would be the equivalent of £1.79/litre. We have some way to go before we get to those levels – and again, the Bath economy (and property market) kicked on quite nicely after 2011.
In 2015, owner occupiers were spending on average 17.3% of their household income on mortgages, yet in 2021 this had risen, albeit to 17.7% – not a huge increase.
Council (social) tenants have seen a drop in their rent from 29.2% of their household income in 2015 to 26.7% in 2021, whilst for private tenants it has dropped from from 36.4% in 2015 to 31.2% in 2021.
The average UK home spent 4.2% of their household income on energy in 2021, and that is due to rise to 6.3% after April (and probably 7% in October). Yet, as a country, we spend 9% of our income on restaurants and hotels and 8% on recreation and culture. As with all aspects of life, it will mean choices, and maybe we will have to forego some luxuries.
Just before I move on from this aspect of the article, again I appreciate I am talking in averages. Many people with low incomes suffer from fuel poverty and they will find the increases in energy prices hard.
79% of homeowners with a mortgage are on a fixed rate, so any rise won’t be instantaneous. But there will be a bizarre side effect from the issues in Eastern Europe. Surprisingly, though the current situation in Eastern Europe by its very nature will bring greater UK inflation, it will also probably defer the Bank of England raising interest rates. This means mortgage rates won’t increase as much, as the bank won’t want to exacerbate any pressures to the UK economy in 2023/24 caused by the conflict.
The stock market had priced an interest rate rise to 2% by the end of 2022. I suspect this will now be no more than 1% to 1.25% by Christmas, slowly going up in quarters of one per cent every few months. The crisis in Eastern Europe might even come to be seen as a defence for higher inflation throughout 2022, all meaning everyone’s mortgage increases will be marginal for now.
Next, let’s look at Consumer Confidence Indexes – these indexes are fickle things. I prefer to look at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Consumer Confidence Index as it has a larger sample range and a longer time frame to compare against. Looking at the data from the mid 1970s, the drop in consumer confidence is big, yet nothing like the drops seen in the Oil Crisis of the mid 1970s, Recession of the early 1980s, ERM crisis of 1992 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09. Also, when compared to the other main economies of the world (G7), the UK has always bounced back much more quickly from recessions when it comes to consumer confidence.
Increasing energy prices, rising inflation, an increase of sanctions, and a probable drop in consumer confidence and spending in the aftermath of the conflict will knock the post-pandemic recovery globally, which will lead to a recession around the world, including the UK.
A recession is when a country’s GDP drops in two consecutive quarters. For the last 300 years, there has been a direct link between British house prices and GDP (i.e. when GDP drops, UK house prices fall). Yet in 2020, the British GDP dropped by nearly 12%, but house prices went the other way.
Let’s look at what would happen if Bath house prices did drop by the same extent they did in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09.
House prices in Bath dropped by 17.2% in the Global Financial Crisis, the biggest drop in house prices over 16 months ever recorded in the UK.
Meaning that if Bath’s house prices dropped by the same percentage in the next 16 months, an average home locally would only be worth £331,184.
On the face of it, not good… until you realise that it would only take us back to Bath house prices being achieved in February 2020 – and nobody was complaining about those.
Yes, that means if they do drop in price, the 5.7% of Bath homeowners who moved home since February 2020 would lose out if they sold after that price crash. But how many people move home after only being in their home for a few years? Not many!
And all this assumes there will be a crash.
The circumstances of 2009 that caused the property crash are entirely different to 2022 (no lending by the banks, higher interest rates and increasing unemployment compared to today’s increased lending, ultra-low interest rates and low unemployment).
I do believe with all that’s happening in the world we might see a rebalancing of the Bath property market later in 2022, and could see the odd month with little negative growth in house prices… But it will be nothing like 2009.
The expected fall in household spending could be counterbalanced by UK businesses’ plans to invest more in their businesses (with last year’s tax breaks on investing), which will create even more jobs.
Who knows what the future holds? These are just my opinions – what are yours?
There are 322 properties for sale today in Bath; roll the clock back exactly a year, and the figure was 676 – there’s been a drop of 52%. This drop is being dubbed the ‘for sale board crunch’.
The ‘for sale board crunch’ has left many prospective Bath home buyers stressing to find the right property as the number of properties available to buy has dropped significantly.
I am sure you know people looking for their next Bath home, but when they see it on the portals (Rightmove, Zoopla, Boomin, OnTheMarket, etc.) the properties are gone within days.
With demand at an all-time high, many home buyers are in a state of misery as Bath house prices have grown in the last few years, forcing many of them to review their plans.
Normally when there has been excess demand in the residential sales market, that frothiness has been taken care of by people moving into rented accommodation. However, the number of Bath properties available to rent is at a 15-year low.
Demand for Bath homes has exceeded the number of properties for sale since the General Election in December 2019. After years of long drawn-out Brexit negotiations, homeowners and buyers were more confident about their move. Many Bath people who put their home move on hold in 2018/19 had more confidence to return to the market.
The first lockdown in the spring of 2020 did nothing to quell this pent-up urge, and since the late spring of 2020, the Bath property market has been on fire! The lockdown changed what homeowners are looking for in their Bath home. Proximity to public transport dropped down the wish list for buyers, and demand for apartments dropped. Whilst properties with larger gardens and rooms that could double up as home offices tended to be at the top of most Bath buyers’ wish lists.
Looking at the supply side of the equation, in the last five years, an average of 204,410 new homes per year have been added to the number of properties available in the UK. Also, 239,600 properties came back into the market when they became available after their owners had sadly passed away. Yet still, that isn’t enough. The country needs at least 300,000 new dwellings to keep pace with demand.
There is also another problem that has come to light with the cladding issue of apartments. Just over ¾ of a million apartments have issues with cladding. Whilst these are being sorted out (which will take many years), they are essentially unsaleable unless a fire safety expert on these buildings signs them as safe.
These cladding issues prevent these apartments from coming onto the market (thus reducing the supply of properties to buy). It also precludes their owners from moving up the property ladder from their apartment to a house. Also, many first-time buyers who can save a bigger deposit or be gifted cash from the Bank of Mum and Dad are skipping the apartment as their first home and going straight for a house, thus intensifying the lack of larger properties for sale.
This means it is a seller’s market in Bath, empowering them to push up their asking prices in high demand areas. However, most sellers are also buyers, which means the advantage they have on selling their property is turned on its head when they come to buy.
Many Bath sellers prefer to find their future Bath home before putting their current home on the market. That is making the lack of properties on the market seem even harsher than it may otherwise be.
However, not all Bath homeowners are doing so, partially because they (wrongly) believe they will be made homeless if they find a buyer and can’t find another property to buy (remember, you are not legally committed to moving until exchange of contracts).
A big issue will be finding a suitable home in Bath. We very much have a chicken and egg scenario. Some homeowners are waiting for the right property to come onto the market before they put their home on the market. This will probably mean that their property will sell even before the photographs have been taken of your home.
Yet, many Bath homeowners are worried if they put their house on the market and it sells, they won’t be able to find another suitable home and thus be homeless.
There is another way of doing this. It’s a technique estate agents used to use before the internet, and it’s called ‘chain building’, which involves slowly building a group of people in a chain over many months. It requires a lot of patience to build a chain downwards and upwards around you.
There is no cost to this and no legal commitment to go through. It can take six, even twelve months to build a chain of people who are prepared to wait for the chain to form.
Because if you don’t play the long game, build relationships with Bath estate agents (who can build these chains) and only rely on waiting for properties to appear on Rightmove, Boomin, OnTheMarket or Zoopla, you will be sorely disappointed.
According to national research from Denton House Research, 7 out of 8 people who viewed a house through an estate agent in 2021 were not on the mailing list of that agent before they viewed it.
That means all these Bath properties built on a chain builder (as above) will sell, yet won’t appear on Rightmove or Zoopla, meaning you will miss out.
You must get yourself on the mailing list of every estate agency so you don’t miss out on your next forever home in Bath.
If you would like a chat about anything mentioned in this article, feel free to drop me a message or call me.
