Amazing Property Transformation – Before & After Pics

One of our landlords recently completed a refurb on a cottage that has been used as a workshop / storage space since the 70s, and had fallen into disrepair. I have to share the before & after pics with you – it’s a real success story! They have done such a complete job of turning the property into a modern, stylish home, and it was a complete joy to find a new tenant for them.

In their own words: “As you will see, the renovations really have been a labour of love! Willow Tree Cottage was originally a home with the most recent known tenant being a Mr Cheeseman, in the 1960s, we think. From around the 1970s, the cottage was used as a garage, workshop and storage rooms. It was very run down when we bought the place. Now we have undertaken the job of turning it back into a warm, inviting and comfortable home again.

“Every part of the house, from the roof down, has been painstakingly repaired, restored or replaced. This included full reconstruction of the roof, new windows, putting in water and electricity connections where there previously were none, new heating and hot water systems, two new bathrooms and a kitchen, replastering including repairing the original lime plaster in many places, full redecoration using specialist paints in Farrow & Ball colours, repointing of the original stonework, structurally reinforcing the old floors, replacing old, rotten lintels. You name it… we did it.

“Although the cottage is fortunately not Listed, our aim was always to enable it to be a comfortable home, with modern conveniences whilst still maintaining its character and beautiful period features such as the fire places, exposed stone walls and original quarry tiled and flagstone floors.

“To help make the cottage as energy efficient as possible, we included a 2.5kw solar pv installation, double glazing, state of the art individually thermostatically controlled clay core radiators, a solar heated water system (that stores excess energy from the solar PV not being used by the electrics in the cottage!) and lots of loft and roof insulation, to the standards of a new build house or above!”


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

Don’t Miss This Seminar For Bath Landlords

The inaugural Bath Landlord Forum event promises important updates for landlords, with particular focus on tax, mortgages and legislation.

With more than 170 different pieces of tenancy legislation to keep on top of (and more on the way!) how are landlords meant to keep up to date? The seminar will help Bath landlords to stay compliant with ever-changing regulations, and provide support to make the most of their property investments.

So join us at The Francis Hotel, Queen Square on Wednesday 19th October from 18:00.

Full details and tickets can be obtained from here: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/bath-landlord-seminar-taxation-mortgages-legislation-tickets-403368906257

The 6 Reasons Bath Rental Properties Could Inflation-Proof Your Savings

  • Inflation (and recessions) can be nerve racking for people and their hard-earned savings and wealth.
  • Yet there are six reasons which make investing in private rental properties a potentially wise investment in these changeable times.
  • This article looks at how investing in Bath property could help you ‘hedge’ against inflation and protect your savings and wealth against the possible recession.

The cost-of-living predicament is threatening the budgets of many Bath households.

Inflation is running at 7.8%, yet the best savings rates in the market are only 2.75% (because of low Bank of England interest rates). This means that the value of people’s savings is falling fast.

To add insult to injury, the possibility of a recession on the horizon could add another nail in the coffin of people’s wealth and savings.

Looking back at the last recession (ignoring the 2020 Covid recession), the Stock Market (FTSE index) dropped 40.1% during the Credit Crunch (2008/9) — scarcely a soothing thought if you worry about a recession looming in the next couple of years.

A recession can have a catastrophic impact on household budgets, as a weaker economy characteristically means that salaries drop, and people get made redundant.

So, why do I suggest Bath rental properties will help to protect your wealth and hedge against inflation?

Bath rentals aren’t perfect, yet in many ways, they go a long way to help – let me tell you why.

1. One of the most significant benefits of investing in residential property is to hedge against inflation. An ‘inflation hedge’ is an investment that defends against the decreased purchasing power of your money that results from the loss of its worth/value due to inflation.

The last time the UK suffered high and persistent inflation was the 1970s.

In 1973, the average British house was worth £9,942. In 1980, that same house was worth £23,287. If the same £9,942 had been invested instead in the stock market in 1973, it would have been worth £19,384 in 1980.

So how did that compare to inflation?

Neither property nor the stock market beat inflation in those seven years (as the goods and services of that £9,942 in 1973 had risen to £25,897 by 1980).

But investing in the stock market between 1973 and 1980, that stock market investor would have lost 25.2% of their investment in ‘real terms’, compared with only 10.1% for property investors.

However, there was the bonus of seven years’ worth of rent!

To give you some idea of what that would be worth in today’s figures (even if the rent didn’t go up during that time frame) …

The average Bath landlord will earn £136,332 in rent over seven years.

2. Rental properties have repetitive, regular monthly income, whilst dividends from the stock market are dependent on there being profits which, in a recession, can be hit and miss.

3. Existing Bath landlords know that the rents their rental properties achieve don’t historically decline during recessions in the medium term.

In 2008, Bath rents dipped by 5.2%, yet they soon bounced back a year later.

And even if average rents do go down, every rent is fixed at the start of the tenancy. Also, it is infrequent for a tenant to negotiate a reduction in rent mid-tenancy even if average rents did drop.

4. Property prices sometimes fall during recessions.

In the 2008 Credit Crunch recession, Bath and North East Somerset property values dropped 19.34%.

Dropping from £253,777 at the peak in September 2007 to £204,700 in May 2009 (before they started to rise again).

Yet as I stated above, the Stock Market dropped 40.1% with the Credit Crunch. Also previously, the Stock Market dropped 36% on Black Monday before the early 1990’s recession and 55.3% in 1974.

Which sort of drop would you prefer?

5. (Almost) guaranteed rental payments. Insurance can be taken out for rental payments (you can’t get that on stocks and shares). Also, the government will cover most (or all) of the rent when someone is made redundant and needs to apply for social security.

6. For those Bath landlords who take a mortgage, inflation can be a benefit. The first is the effect of inflation on mortgage debt. As Bath house prices rise over time, it reduces the loan to value percentage of your mortgage debt and increases your equity. You will receive a lower interest rate when you re-mortgage in the future because of the lower loan to value percentage.

Also, as the equity in your Bath rental property increases, assuming you fix your mortgage, your payments stay the same.

Finally, inflation also helps Bath buy-to-let landlords because rents tend to increase with inflation. So as rents go up, your fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage payments stay the same, creating the prospect of more significant profit from your buy-to-let investment.

Yet, there are downsides to renting.

Rent arrears can be a worry. However, during 2021, landlords who used a letting agent were, according to an investigation from Denton House Research, 272.5% less likely to be in arrears of two months or more.

One of the biggest reasons is the more stringent tenant referencing that letting agents tend to do compared to landlords who do it themselves. At our agency, we like to reference tenants carefully for job security, stability, and any history of non-payment on rents, always liaising with previous landlords/agents to see they were a good tenant.

That is why many tenants with a poor tenancy record are attracted to properties that are not through agents, as they know most (not all) DIY landlords don’t reference their tenants as thoroughly as letting agents do. Solid referencing is not a 100% guarantee you won’t get rent arrears or have your rental property trashed, yet it will go a long way to mitigate it.

One of the things about investing in Bath rental properties is that buy-to-let investors have more control over their returns than stock market investors do. Buy-to-let provides long-term stability and constant income to counterweight the massive swings seen in the FTSE stock market.

There is something reassuring about touching and feeling your investment – the ‘bricks and mortar’.

You must make your own decision when investing in the private rental market in Bath. If you’d like to chat over the phone for five or ten minutes to discuss where I would be investing in the Bath property market, don’t hesitate to send me a message or pick up the phone.

How are you planning for the spectre of a potential recession?


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

Bath Rental Homes Nightmare!

  • Bath needs 369 additional private rented properties per year to keep up with current and future demand from Bath tenants.
  • Yet over the last 5 years, Bath has lost 617 private rented homes.
  • What are the 5 reasons the supply of private rental properties in Bath are falling? What does this mean for tenants and landlords in Bath?

There has been a rise in demand for rental properties and an 8.9% fall in the number of private rented properties in Bath, which has caused Bath rents to rise by 8.8% in the last year – a new all-time high.

The National Residential Landlords Association asked the respected economics think tank, Capital Economics, to carry out research on the UK rental market. It found that demand for homes in the private rented sector needs to increase by 227,000 homes per year if the current trends in the property market continue (growth of the population, Brits living longer, the lack of new homes building and the reduction in social housing).

So, based on those numbers, Bath needs to have an additional 369 private rented properties per year.

The problem is the number of private rented properties in Bath has reduced from 11,553 in 2017 to 10,936 in 2021, a net loss of 617.

So, why has supply of private rented homes in Bath reduced?

1. Section 24 Income Tax

Section 24 was introduced in 2017 to level the playing field on the taxation of property between homeowners and landlords. Section 24 stops landlords from offsetting their buy-to-let mortgage costs against the profits from their rental property. Interestingly, no other kind of UK business is affected by the Section 24 taxation. In other words, whatever other form of business you might be in, be it butcher, baker or candlestick maker, every other business can offset their finance costs against their profits, except buy-to-let.

The issue caused by Section 24 Tax is that some landlords ended up paying more income tax than they really made in profit after paying their buy-to-let mortgages. Meaning on the back of rising house prices in the last five years, some Bath landlords have sold their buy-to-let investments.

2. 3% More Stamp Duty for Landlords

When someone buys a property, they normally must pay a tax to the Government for the privilege. This tax is called Stamp Duty. Yet landlords must pay an additional 3% stamp duty supplement on top of that when they purchase a buy-to-let property. Evidence suggests some Bath landlords have decided to hold off or scale back buying additional buy-to-let properties for their portfolio because of the thousands of extra pounds that landlords have to pay to buy the rental property.

3. Holiday and AirBnB Lets

Some Bath landlords are converting their long-term rental properties into short-term furnished holiday and AirBnB properties. Whilst the hassle, stress and service levels are much higher, these types of properties do tend to make more money and aren’t as heavily taxed as normal lets. When properties convert to short-term lets, it removes another property out of the general supply chain of long-term rental properties.

4. Greater Legislation for Rental Properties

With more than 170 pieces of legalisation, and new laws being added each year, the burden on landlords is huge. On the horizon is the Renters Reform Bill which will remove no fault evictions. Also, all rental properties with an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of below a ‘C’ will have to be improved (i.e. money spent on them) by the landlord. Hence why some landlords have been selling their rental properties with low EPC ratings in the last 18 months.

5. Accidental Landlords Selling Up

There are some Bath landlords who are classed as ‘Accidental Landlords’. In 2008/9, with a slowing property market and house price values dropping in the order of 16% to 19% (depending on the type of property), some Bath homeowners decided to let their home out as opposed to selling it at a loss. But with the price booms of the last 18 months, many decided to cash in on the higher property prices and sell – again taking another private rental property out of the system.

So, why is demand of private rented homes in Bath increasing, even though more people own their home in Bath than 5 years ago?

Even with better provision of affordable social housing and higher rates of owner occupation in Bath (rising from 56.22% of homes in Bath being owner occupied in 2017 to 58.28% in 2021), demand for private rental property continues to outstrip supply.

There are many reasons behind this including …

  1. Bath has proven to be a popular destination for the high volume of renters who decided to leave London during the pandemic.
  2. People are living longer, meaning not so many properties are coming back into the mix to be recycled for the younger generation.
  3. Net migration to the UK has continued at just over a quarter of a million people a year since 2017, meaning we need an additional 115,000 households to house them alone.
  4. For the last two years, one in six of the owners of properties that have been sold have moved in to rented accommodation instead of buying on because of the lack of properties to buy.

So, what is the outcome of the imbalance between supply and demand on Bath rental properties?

Quite simply – Bath rents have rocketed. They are 8.8% higher today than the spring of 2020 … and that’s on the back of rents being 9.7% higher in spring 2020, compared to spring 2019.

The severe shortage of housing in the private rented sector is pushing up rents in Bath as demand continues to grow. Many Bath people are finding it hard work to find appropriate accommodation at a reasonable rent, and with mounting numbers of tenants predicted to continue, this situation will only get worse unless more houses are built.

My heart goes out to those Bath tenants struggling with the cost-of-living crisis only to then be hit by higher rents.

Yet, these higher rents are now enticing new landlords back into the Bath buy-to-let market because of the higher returns.

With higher inflation, property investment has often been seen as a safe harbour to invest one’s money in. With the bonus of rising yields (because of the increase in rents) together with the nervousness of the Bank of England to increase interest rates too much because of the issues in Eastern Europe, this could be the start of a second renaissance in the Bath buy-to-let market.

If you have concerns about the issues in legislation and taxation, then the advantage of employing a qualified letting agent, with the choice of property, what you pay for it and how it’s managed, will go a long way to mitigate them.

If you would like to discuss any aspect of this article, you’re very welcome to drop me a message or call me.


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

Bath Rental Market Review: April 2022

Everything you need to know about the Bath rental market in April 2022.

Reside General Manager Toby Martin summarises rental activity over the last month, with the latest facts and figures from the local market.


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

Bath Rental Market Review: March 2022

Everything you need to know about the Bath rental market in March 2022.

Reside General Manager Toby Martin summarises rental activity over the last month, with the latest facts and figures from the local market.


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

1 in 4 Bath Homeowners Unable To Sell

  • The average time to find a buyer for a Bath property reduced from 72 days in 2020 to 66 days in 2021.
  • Yet just over 1 in 4 Bath homeowners are still on the market after 12 weeks.
  • Why are so many Bath homes still on the market after all that time, and what does it mean for the Bath property market?

If you had been living in a cave since the end of Lockdown No. 1, you might have still heard that the property market has been on fire in Bath (and the UK as a whole) for the last 18/20 months.

It has been very much a seller’s market, especially in 2021. Yet as we enter the second quarter of 2022, I have noticed a slight rebalancing of the Bath property market towards buyers, something that is good news for everyone (sellers and buyers) locally.

In 2020, it took on average 72 days from the average Bath property appearing on the property portals (i.e. Rightmove, Zoopla etc.) to the property going sold (STC).

Interestingly, Bath was bang on the national average of 72 days in 2020. Yet, last year, this was reduced to 66 days in Bath (51 days nationally).

Well, that was last year, and things have changed slightly since.

Of the properties for sale in Bath, 26.6% of houses have been on the market for more than 12 weeks.

That doesn’t sound a lot, yet that is an eternity in this market!

So, why are there so many properties on the market in Bath still for sale after all this time? It usually comes down to one thing… the practice of ‘overvaluing’.

So before I explain what overvaluing is, let me give you some background.

Many agents in 2021, were achieving top prices for Bath property with multiple offers becoming the standard. The property they were selling was only available to buy for days before the owner obtained multiple offers that were not only at a satisfactory level, but more than they ever dreamed likely.

Although this was great news for Bath homeowners, this caused fewer homes to come onto the market in the last six months in Bath, as people were afraid to put their home on the market without having a property to buy.

With fewer properties coming onto the market, some estate agents have become more and more desperate to get a larger slice of this smaller property market. It has seen an unwelcome side of the estate agency profession, the estate agency practice of ‘overvaluing’.

While ‘overvaluing’ is nothing new, the custom has been generally limited to a small number of estate agents. Yet now, it’s become more prevalent and creates uncountable distress and pressure for some Bath homeowners.

Many Bath homeowners want to sell quickly to get the property of their dreams. Yet, in many cases, when they do put their property on to the market, they don’t sell quickly enough because of this ‘overvaluing’ (even with the fantastic current property market conditions).

To give you an idea of the issue …

65.8% of Bath homes put on the market in the last 30 days have not sold.

There are hundreds of Bath families having their dreams dashed by ‘overvaluing’.

Therefore, let me look at exactly what overvaluing is, why it’s on the rise and most importantly, the harm overvaluing causes to homeowners like yourself.

You would think the most important thing in estate agency is all about finding the best buyer for your home, at the best price, who can make the move with the least amount of hassle.

To us it is, and to many other Bath estate agents, it is as well. Yet, to some agents, sales aren’t the essential objective. Instead, it is having a vigorous catalogue of properties to sell to generate more future leads.

Deprived of an endless number of new properties for sale, the enquiries estate agents receive will significantly drop, leaving them high and dry without any buyer (or seller) leads, the lifeblood of estate agents.

Therefore, some (not all) estate agents will feed on a homeowner’s appetite to get the highest possible price for their Bath home by giving them an over-inflated suggested asking price at which to market their property (i.e. ‘overvaluing’).

If one estate agent can get you an extra £30,000 for your Bath home, you will take it, won’t you?

The suggestion of pushing the asking price of your Bath home up by 10%, 15%, even 20% could be seen by many as a temptation too good to miss. Yet once you are on the market, the agent is trained to slowly get you to reduce your asking price over a lengthy sole agency agreement.

The problem is that the home of your dreams might have sold during the 3 months in which you have been reducing your price. Also, Which? reports in 2017 and 2019 proved you ended up getting less for your home when it did eventually sell (which means you lose money) and finally, the agents know homeowners perceive that it’s a hassle to swap agents (which it isn’t).

But estate agents only get paid when they sell the house; why do they overvalue?

Would it surprise you that some estate agency chains pay their staff a commission when they put the property on to the market, not when it sells? So, their team overinflate their suggested asking prices to get that commission.

Over the last 18 months, with the rising property market, there has undoubtedly been a valid reason for pushing the envelope on the asking price. Yet, if every house like yours is on the market or sold subject to contract at £300,000 to £320,000, yours isn’t going to achieve £355,000, let alone £375,000 – even in this market.

With 65.8% of Bath homes still for sale after a month, the market is starting to level out and if you are keen to sell, then let me give you some advice.

Beware the same practice from lettings agents

Nearly everything I’ve written in this article similarly applies to getting your property valued by a lettings agent. Many agencies secure instructions by quoting a high rental figure and tying their client into a lengthy sole agency period.

A couple of weeks later, the landlord will receive a phone call from their agent, saying that they must ‘listen to the market’ and reduce the advertised rent.

The landlord will eventually find their tenant, but weeks later than they should have done, and with an agency that was prepared to secure their business by deliberately overpricing.

Research has shown that if the asking price is initially set too high, it will be ignored by people surfing Rightmove and Zoopla.

(Come on, be honest – you have done that yourself haven’t you?)

When the property is eventually reduced because it has the stigma of being on the property market too long (begging the question from potential buyers or tenants that there may be a problem with the property itself hence no interest?), often when it does eventually let or sell, the owner will achieve less than it would have done if it were priced correctly from day one (as per the two reports from Which? in 2017 and 2019).

Of course, on the other hand, setting the asking price below its market value means potentially leaving money on the table needlessly – hence the need for a good agent.

Putting your Bath home or buy-to-let investment on the market at the right price from the beginning is the key to selling within the best time frame and for the best price to a serious and motivated buyer / tenant.

Ask a handful of estate agents to value your home, ask them to back up any valuation of your Bath home with cold hard comparables of similar properties to yours – ideally, properties that have actually sold, rather than ones that are languishing on the market at a high asking price.

Find your own comparables by searching ALL the property portals (i.e. Rightmove, Zoopla, Boomin, OnTheMarket).

If you only take away one thing from this article, when you search the portals for comparables, make sure you include under offer/sold STC properties, as that will triple the comparable evidence.

Thus, by doing your homework and then working with a dependable, trustworthy and experienced estate agent, who will help to ensure that your Bath property is put on the market to get you, the homeowner, the best price from day one without overcooking it so you don’t lose out, you will be just fine.

These are my thoughts, let me know if you have any yourself.


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

How Will Rising Inflation Affect the Bath Property Market in 2022?

The UK is currently experiencing its highest inflation rate since the early 1990s. This increase in prices has primarily come about by the combination of an increase in demand for goods and services from consumers following lockdown last year together with global supply chain disruptions.

Most economists weren’t too concerned about this increase in the inflation rate as the very same thing happened in the early 1990s following the Credit Crunch with a similar rise in demand and supply chain issues. Thankfully, back in the early 1990s, inflation returned to lower levels quite quickly. However, the situation in Eastern Europe now could change matters.

So, let’s look at all the factors and what it means for the Bath property market.

The crisis in Eastern Europe has sparked even further rises in crude oil (which diesel and petrol are made from), gas and grain prices as pressure on supply chains around the world increases.

In my previous articles, I suggested UK inflation would rise to around 7% in the spring and drop back to 5% in the autumn and as we entered 2023, be approximately 3% to 4%.

Yet, with these issues, inflation could rise to 8% to 9% by late spring and still be around 6% to 7% in autumn, well above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

With Bath wages rising at only 3% to 4% and inflation at 7%+, Bath household incomes, in real terms, will fall.

This is because ‘real’ UK household incomes characteristically have been the most consistent lead indicator of growth (or a drop) in house prices. This is because growing inflation erodes the value of money you earn, which reduces its buying power. When the cash in your pocket has a lower spending power, people tend to spend less when they buy or rent a home (and vice versa).

Next month, Income Tax thresholds will be frozen, and National Insurance contributions are increasing. Collectively, all these issues will create a drop of around 2% to 2.5% in the real disposable income of Britain’s households in 2022 (real disposable income – i.e. somebody’s take-home wages after tax and the effects of inflation are considered).

Will Bathonians be more anxious about spending their money?

With less money in people’s pockets, their inclination to spend the money they do have could also be curtailed. Whilst savings are at an all-time high, many will decide to sit on the cash instead of spending it, especially as consumer confidence has dropped to minus 26 on the GfK index (whatever that means! But in all seriousness… more on that below).

All this can only mean… there is going to be a house price crash.

It’s all doom and gloom! …or is it?

My heart goes out to people caught up in the awful humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe. For the purposes of this article, however, I need to respectfully put that to one side for just a moment.

This blog is about the Bath property market, and Bathonians want to know what will happen to the Bath property market.

In the first half of the article, I looked at the impending 2 to 2.5% fall in real disposable incomes during 2022. I appreciate it’s going to be tough for many families in Bath. Yet, it is always important to consider what has happened in times gone by:

1982 – a drop of 2.3% in real disposable income
1992 – a drop of 3.7% in real disposable income
2008 – a drop of 5.8% in real disposable income

Yes, it’s going to be tough, but we got through 1982, 1992 and 2008 – and so we shall in 2022/23.

Next: the price of petrol is very high compared to a year ago.

The average price of unleaded petrol is £1.51/litre today, quite a jump from the £1.21/litre a year ago. But here is an interesting fact, petrol was a lot more expensive (in real terms) in 2011 than today. In TODAY’s money, a litre of unleaded petrol in 2011 would be the equivalent of £1.79/litre. We have some way to go before we get to those levels – and again, the Bath economy (and property market) kicked on quite nicely after 2011.

What are Bath people spending on their rent and mortgages?

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In 2015, owner occupiers were spending on average 17.3% of their household income on mortgages, yet in 2021 this had risen, albeit to 17.7% – not a huge increase.

Council (social) tenants have seen a drop in their rent from 29.2% of their household income in 2015 to 26.7% in 2021, whilst for private tenants it has dropped from from 36.4% in 2015 to 31.2% in 2021.

Interestingly, private tenants are proportionally 14.29% better off in 2021 than in 2015.

The average UK home spent 4.2% of their household income on energy in 2021, and that is due to rise to 6.3% after April (and probably 7% in October). Yet, as a country, we spend 9% of our income on restaurants and hotels and 8% on recreation and culture. As with all aspects of life, it will mean choices, and maybe we will have to forego some luxuries.

Just before I move on from this aspect of the article, again I appreciate I am talking in averages. Many people with low incomes suffer from fuel poverty and they will find the increases in energy prices hard.

Higher inflation is generally brought under control using higher interest rates, meaning mortgage payments will be higher.

79% of homeowners with a mortgage are on a fixed rate, so any rise won’t be instantaneous. But there will be a bizarre side effect from the issues in Eastern Europe. Surprisingly, though the current situation in Eastern Europe by its very nature will bring greater UK inflation, it will also probably defer the Bank of England raising interest rates. This means mortgage rates won’t increase as much, as the bank won’t want to exacerbate any pressures to the UK economy in 2023/24 caused by the conflict.

The stock market had priced an interest rate rise to 2% by the end of 2022. I suspect this will now be no more than 1% to 1.25% by Christmas, slowly going up in quarters of one per cent every few months. The crisis in Eastern Europe might even come to be seen as a defence for higher inflation throughout 2022, all meaning everyone’s mortgage increases will be marginal for now.

Next, let’s look at Consumer Confidence Indexes – these indexes are fickle things. I prefer to look at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Consumer Confidence Index as it has a larger sample range and a longer time frame to compare against. Looking at the data from the mid 1970s, the drop in consumer confidence is big, yet nothing like the drops seen in the Oil Crisis of the mid 1970s, Recession of the early 1980s, ERM crisis of 1992 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09. Also, when compared to the other main economies of the world (G7), the UK has always bounced back much more quickly from recessions when it comes to consumer confidence.

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What about house prices in Bath in 2022/23?

Increasing energy prices, rising inflation, an increase of sanctions, and a probable drop in consumer confidence and spending in the aftermath of the conflict will knock the post-pandemic recovery globally, which will lead to a recession around the world, including the UK.

A recession is when a country’s GDP drops in two consecutive quarters. For the last 300 years, there has been a direct link between British house prices and GDP (i.e. when GDP drops, UK house prices fall). Yet in 2020, the British GDP dropped by nearly 12%, but house prices went the other way.

Let’s look at what would happen if Bath house prices did drop by the same extent they did in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/09.

House prices in Bath dropped by 17.2% in the Global Financial Crisis, the biggest drop in house prices over 16 months ever recorded in the UK.

The average value of a property in Bath and North East Somerset today is £399,981.

Meaning that if Bath’s house prices dropped by the same percentage in the next 16 months, an average home locally would only be worth £331,184.

On the face of it, not good… until you realise that it would only take us back to Bath house prices being achieved in February 2020 – and nobody was complaining about those.

Yes, that means if they do drop in price, the 5.7% of Bath homeowners who moved home since February 2020 would lose out if they sold after that price crash. But how many people move home after only being in their home for a few years? Not many!

The simple fact is that 94.3% of Bath homeowners will still be better off when they move if house prices crash.

And all this assumes there will be a crash.

The circumstances of 2009 that caused the property crash are entirely different to 2022 (no lending by the banks, higher interest rates and increasing unemployment compared to today’s increased lending, ultra-low interest rates and low unemployment).

I do believe with all that’s happening in the world we might see a rebalancing of the Bath property market later in 2022, and could see the odd month with little negative growth in house prices… But it will be nothing like 2009.

The expected fall in household spending could be counterbalanced by UK businesses’ plans to invest more in their businesses (with last year’s tax breaks on investing), which will create even more jobs.

Who knows what the future holds? These are just my opinions – what are yours?


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.

Bath Rental Market Review: February 2022

Everything you need to know about the Bath rental market in February 2022.

Reside General Manager Toby Martin summarises rental activity over the last month, with the latest facts and figures from the local market.


Reside is an award-winning independent letting agent in Bath. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss any aspect of letting or managing your property; we would love to hear from you.