All the facts and figures on the rental market in Bath & beyond from June 2023, including some really interesting information about the differing performances of houses and flat on the market.
All the facts and figures on the rental market in Bath & beyond from May 2023, including a close look at how long it takes to let a property and what that tells us about the current market.
Anybody who enjoys surfing the property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and On the Market) will have observed an emerging trend that the number of properties available to rent in Bath has dropped considerably in the last couple of years.
This reduction has been seen all around the UK as well. For example, on 1st November 2020, there were 372,931 properties to rent on portals. By the 1st November 2021, that had dropped to 275,650; by the 1st November 2022, that had fallen to 171,224.
That doesn’t mean the number of privately rented homes in the country has dropped by over half. Fewer properties are coming onto the market to rent. I will explain why in this article.
For tenants, especially over the last 12 months, it has become progressively more challenging to find a rental home, thus making the rent they must pay go up. This state of affairs in the property market isn’t showing an indication of getting any easier either, making for a hard time for Bath renters.
Several different components are making the perfect storm in the UK property market.
Firstly, the number of households in the UK.
The UK has not been building enough homes for the last 20 years. I appreciate that parts of Bath seem like one huge building site, yet as a country, we are woefully undersupplied with property to live in. This has meant house prices continue to rise due to demand.
The government have known about this issue for decades. The Barker Review of Housing Supply published in 2004 stated that the UK had experienced a long-term upward trend of 2.4% in real house prices since the mid-1970s because of a lack of house building. The report stated that 240,000 houses needed to be built each year to keep up with demand.
(i.e. 45 years multiplied by 75,000 missing homes per year)
Several years ago, the government set a target to build 300,000 new homes each year to address this issue.
However, in 2019/20, the actual number of homes delivered stood at just 243,770. In 2020/21, the number of properties built dropped to only 216,000 new homes. In a nutshell, there are fewer available homes to buy, meaning fewer available homes to rent.
Secondly, Bath tenants are staying in their rental homes longer.
The average rent of a Bath property in November 2022 is £2,245 per calendar month (up from £1,409 per calendar month in February 2020) – quite a rise!
These numbers translate into Bath renters not being able to pay the rent and be able to save for a deposit, or if they are saving, it is taking a lot longer to save for a deposit due to the cost-of-living crisis and higher rent costs.
Also, many Bath tenants have decided to stay in their existing rental homes because of the rent rises. Many landlords are less inclined to raise the rent on an existing property when they have a decent tenant who keeps the property in good condition and pays rent on time. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that rent arrears in those properties are dropping as tenants know if they don’t pay the rent, the chances are they will have trouble finding another property, and if they do, they will have to pay a lot for their next rental home.
For Bath landlords, this is all positive news – tenants are staying for longer in their rental properties, arrears are lower, and void periods are less likely. When it comes to the market there is less competition (because of the decrease in the availability of Bath rental properties) so this makes the investment an even better bet.
Thirdly, landlords are selling up on the back of recently increased house prices.
It would be difficult for Bath buy-to-let landlords to ignore the rising property prices in recent years.
For some buy-to-let landlords, especially those who were classified as ‘accidental landlords’ (an accidental landlord is a landlord who never chose to become a landlord, it was just after the Credit Crunch of 2008/9, they found themselves unable to sell their property, so they temporarily let their own property out), they chose to ‘cash in’ on the higher house prices. This would have also contributed to the lack of available Bath homes for rent.
Landlords have a few costs to consider before investing in buy-to-let, including everything from regular refurbishment costs, buildings insurance, letting agents’ fees, income tax, and not forgetting stamp duty.
Talking of costs, one issue some Bath landlords are facing is their failure to plan financially for the recent mortgage interest rate rises. Some landlords may have become complacent to the ultra-low Bank of England base rates we have had since 2008 and, therefore, may need to sell their rental property, which, if bought by a first-time buyer, will remove another property from the Private Rented Sector.
Another hurdle to jump is the proposed new regulations requiring better energy efficiency for rental properties. It is proposed that all new tenancies must have at least a minimum of a ‘C’ rating for their EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) from 2025 (and 2028 for all existing tenancies).
Therefore, as a buy-to-let Bath landlord, it is wise to do your research to make sure the buy-to-let opportunity is correct for your rental portfolio, particularly when it comes to weathering any impending financial storms.
Landlords can earn money from their buy-to-let investments in two ways. One is the property’s capital growth, and the other is the rental return (often expressed as a yield). In 96% of buy-to-let investments, there is an inverse relationship between capital growth and yield (i.e. properties that tend to go up in value quicker will have lower yields 96% of the time – and vice versa).
Getting the best balance of yield and capital growth depends on your current and future needs from your Bath buy-to-let investment.
The continued shortage of Bath rental properties means it will be more difficult than ever to find a Bath property to rent, and so rents will continue to grow.
Unlike in Scotland, England and Wales do not have rent controls, with Westminster ruling out the possibility of introducing rent control here to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
You would think rent controls would be a no-brainer, yet economists from around the world have proved for the last 75 years that rent controls might help tenants in the short term, yet ultimately it drives landlords to sell their investments in the long term, thus reducing the stock of available properties to rent out (not great for future tenants).
Landlords who persevere with their Bath buy-to-let properties or become a Bath buy-to-let landlord are set to benefit because they have an asset in very high demand.
The housing shortage, not to mention the other issues discussed above that are affecting the supply of rental properties, is unlikely to be fixed anytime soon!
In conclusion, the Bath rental market is a constantly changing picture. What is known is that the supply of rental properties is far from what is needed, which can only be to the benefit of buy-to-let investors rather than of tenants renting.
I see buy-to-let as a long-term investment. Everyone reading this knows that the real value in your buy-to-let investment is playing the long game, allowing your Bath buy-to-let investment to grow over time. Like the crypto or stock market, getting sucked in by get-rich-quick schemes that are selling ‘apparent quick wins’ in property investment is very easy.
Being a Bath landlord is undoubtedly a challenge. The glory years of making money from ‘any old property’ are certainly in the past. With increased legislation and taxation from Government and the cost-of-living crisis (which will result in some Bath tenants struggling to pay their rent), times are challenging for many landlords.
Then newspapers are full of stories of landlords being pushed into the red as mortgage rates continue to rise. A landlord last summer could have fixed their 5-year buy-to-let rate with a 25% deposit at 1.86%, whilst today the best 5-year deal is with Barclays at 4.36%. This increase will add more than £246 per month to the landlord’s mortgage bill for the average UK buy-to-let property.
Next, the press is reporting in Q2 2022 (when compared to Q2 2021), landlord possession claims for arrears increased from 6,997 to 18,201 properties (a rise of 160%), property orders from 5,431 to 14,319 (an increase of 164%), warrants from 3,786 to 7,728 (a rise of 104%) and landlord repossessions from 1,582 to 4,900 (a rise of 210%).
This is on the back of the Section 24 tax changes made a few years ago and ahead of expensive energy efficiency upgrades that the Government is expected to legislate for in the coming 12 months.
Doesn’t sound good for landlords.
Until you look past the headlines and look at the actual detail.
79.93% of UK buy-to-let (BTL) mortgages are interest-only mortgages (compared to 12.29% of homebuyers), meaning the repayments are considerably lower than typical homebuyer mortgages. Therefore, the rise in interest rates won’t hit landlords’ profitability as much as many thought initially.
93.21% of all new BTL mortgages agreed in the last two years have been on a fixed rate mortgage, and 73.27% of all existing BTL mortgages are on a fixed rate. So, the increase in mortgage payments will only affect one in four landlords on variable-rate mortgages.
Let us not forget that less than one in three landlords have a BTL mortgage, meaning two out of three landlords aren’t affected by these interest rate rises.
Those possession orders mentioned above look high until you realise that there are 4.4 million properties in the private rented sector. That means only 2.04% of UK rental properties had arrears bad enough for landlords (or agents) to start possession proceedings to evict the tenant. Also, only 0.045% of tenants were evicted through the courts in a calendar year.
Talking of arrears, recent studies using statistics from the Government and other letting industry sources show that …
Next, the potential cost of upgrading rental properties’ energy efficiency.
The proposed changes in the MEES regulations require a minimum energy efficiency (measured by its Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)) to a ‘C’ rating on new tenancies from 2025 and existing tenancies by 2028. That will cost, on average, £10,000+ per property.
Yet it cannot be forgotten when the rules changed in 2018 properties had to have a minimum EPC rating of E in England and Wales to be legally compliant. If a landlord of an ‘F’ or ‘G’ rated rental property could prove that it would cost more than £3,500 to make those improvements to their EPC rating, then that was the most the landlord had to pay. No doubt something similar will take place in the future proposed legislation.
Then there is the profitability of renting. Rental yields are the primary guide to profitability in buy-to-let.
The average yields being achieved in Bath today are …
Yet investing in buy-to-let isn’t just about the yield.
Demand from tenants plays a massive part in the success or failure of your buy-to-let investment, so other yardsticks, such as void periods, should be considered. There is no point in securing a higher-yielding rental property if that buy-to-let investment remains empty.
My research has found that the Bath overall void period average so far is 41.4% lower than 18 months ago, reducing from 29 days in April 2021 to 17 days in September 2022 (the void period being the time it takes from the date of an old tenant moving out until the new tenant moves in).
Finally, buy-to-let investment is also an excellent hedge against inflation compared to other investments. If you would like more information on that, drop me a line, as it’s too long to post here.
The next few years will be challenging for everyone. Still, with the advice and opinion of a decent Bath letting agent to guide and support you on your buy-to-let journey, buy-to-let will continue to be a profitable investment.
You need to review your rental portfolio regularly. See how your portfolio measures up against yield vs capital growth see-saw. Review your mortgage financing and EPC status of your portfolio.
If you would like a no-obligation chat with me to discuss your options as a new potential landlord or an existing landlord with a rental portfolio, then let’s talk.
This month, Toby talks about the practice of offering over asking rent, and looks at some recently introduced landlord legislation.
It’s been a tough week to keep up with exactly what’s happening to Section 21. Although this video was recorded shortly before the PMQs during which the Prime Minister appeared to confirm that Section 21 would be abolished, it’s pretty much hit the nail on the head (if I do say so myself!).
It’s been a tough week to keep up with exactly what’s happening to Section 21. Although this video was recorded shortly before the PMQs during which the Prime Minister appeared to confirm that Section 21 would be abolished, it’s pretty much hit the nail on the head (if I do say so myself!).
With more than 170 different pieces of tenancy legislation to keep on top of (and more on the way!) how are landlords meant to keep up to date? The seminar will help Bath landlords to stay compliant with ever-changing regulations, and provide support to make the most of their property investments.
So join us at The Francis Hotel, Queen Square on Wednesday 19th October from 18:00.
Full details and tickets can be obtained from here: https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/bath-landlord-seminar-taxation-mortgages-legislation-tickets-403368906257
The cost-of-living predicament is threatening the budgets of many Bath households.
Inflation is running at 7.8%, yet the best savings rates in the market are only 2.75% (because of low Bank of England interest rates). This means that the value of people’s savings is falling fast.
To add insult to injury, the possibility of a recession on the horizon could add another nail in the coffin of people’s wealth and savings.
Looking back at the last recession (ignoring the 2020 Covid recession), the Stock Market (FTSE index) dropped 40.1% during the Credit Crunch (2008/9) — scarcely a soothing thought if you worry about a recession looming in the next couple of years.
A recession can have a catastrophic impact on household budgets, as a weaker economy characteristically means that salaries drop, and people get made redundant.
Bath rentals aren’t perfect, yet in many ways, they go a long way to help – let me tell you why.
1. One of the most significant benefits of investing in residential property is to hedge against inflation. An ‘inflation hedge’ is an investment that defends against the decreased purchasing power of your money that results from the loss of its worth/value due to inflation.
The last time the UK suffered high and persistent inflation was the 1970s.
In 1973, the average British house was worth £9,942. In 1980, that same house was worth £23,287. If the same £9,942 had been invested instead in the stock market in 1973, it would have been worth £19,384 in 1980.
So how did that compare to inflation?
Neither property nor the stock market beat inflation in those seven years (as the goods and services of that £9,942 in 1973 had risen to £25,897 by 1980).
But investing in the stock market between 1973 and 1980, that stock market investor would have lost 25.2% of their investment in ‘real terms’, compared with only 10.1% for property investors.
However, there was the bonus of seven years’ worth of rent!
To give you some idea of what that would be worth in today’s figures (even if the rent didn’t go up during that time frame) …
2. Rental properties have repetitive, regular monthly income, whilst dividends from the stock market are dependent on there being profits which, in a recession, can be hit and miss.
3. Existing Bath landlords know that the rents their rental properties achieve don’t historically decline during recessions in the medium term.
And even if average rents do go down, every rent is fixed at the start of the tenancy. Also, it is infrequent for a tenant to negotiate a reduction in rent mid-tenancy even if average rents did drop.
4. Property prices sometimes fall during recessions.
Dropping from £253,777 at the peak in September 2007 to £204,700 in May 2009 (before they started to rise again).
Yet as I stated above, the Stock Market dropped 40.1% with the Credit Crunch. Also previously, the Stock Market dropped 36% on Black Monday before the early 1990’s recession and 55.3% in 1974.
Which sort of drop would you prefer?
5. (Almost) guaranteed rental payments. Insurance can be taken out for rental payments (you can’t get that on stocks and shares). Also, the government will cover most (or all) of the rent when someone is made redundant and needs to apply for social security.
6. For those Bath landlords who take a mortgage, inflation can be a benefit. The first is the effect of inflation on mortgage debt. As Bath house prices rise over time, it reduces the loan to value percentage of your mortgage debt and increases your equity. You will receive a lower interest rate when you re-mortgage in the future because of the lower loan to value percentage.
Also, as the equity in your Bath rental property increases, assuming you fix your mortgage, your payments stay the same.
Finally, inflation also helps Bath buy-to-let landlords because rents tend to increase with inflation. So as rents go up, your fixed-rate buy-to-let mortgage payments stay the same, creating the prospect of more significant profit from your buy-to-let investment.
Yet, there are downsides to renting.
Rent arrears can be a worry. However, during 2021, landlords who used a letting agent were, according to an investigation from Denton House Research, 272.5% less likely to be in arrears of two months or more.
One of the biggest reasons is the more stringent tenant referencing that letting agents tend to do compared to landlords who do it themselves. At our agency, we like to reference tenants carefully for job security, stability, and any history of non-payment on rents, always liaising with previous landlords/agents to see they were a good tenant.
That is why many tenants with a poor tenancy record are attracted to properties that are not through agents, as they know most (not all) DIY landlords don’t reference their tenants as thoroughly as letting agents do. Solid referencing is not a 100% guarantee you won’t get rent arrears or have your rental property trashed, yet it will go a long way to mitigate it.
One of the things about investing in Bath rental properties is that buy-to-let investors have more control over their returns than stock market investors do. Buy-to-let provides long-term stability and constant income to counterweight the massive swings seen in the FTSE stock market.
You must make your own decision when investing in the private rental market in Bath. If you’d like to chat over the phone for five or ten minutes to discuss where I would be investing in the Bath property market, don’t hesitate to send me a message or pick up the phone.
How are you planning for the spectre of a potential recession?
