The latest Propertymark Housing Insight Report suggests that tenant demand is on the rise again, with supply of property unable to keep up.
Anybody who enjoys surfing the property portals (Rightmove, Zoopla and On the Market) will have observed an emerging trend that the number of properties available to rent in Bath has dropped considerably in the last couple of years.
This reduction has been seen all around the UK as well. For example, on 1st November 2020, there were 372,931 properties to rent on portals. By the 1st November 2021, that had dropped to 275,650; by the 1st November 2022, that had fallen to 171,224.
That doesn’t mean the number of privately rented homes in the country has dropped by over half. Fewer properties are coming onto the market to rent. I will explain why in this article.
For tenants, especially over the last 12 months, it has become progressively more challenging to find a rental home, thus making the rent they must pay go up. This state of affairs in the property market isn’t showing an indication of getting any easier either, making for a hard time for Bath renters.
Several different components are making the perfect storm in the UK property market.
Firstly, the number of households in the UK.
The UK has not been building enough homes for the last 20 years. I appreciate that parts of Bath seem like one huge building site, yet as a country, we are woefully undersupplied with property to live in. This has meant house prices continue to rise due to demand.
The government have known about this issue for decades. The Barker Review of Housing Supply published in 2004 stated that the UK had experienced a long-term upward trend of 2.4% in real house prices since the mid-1970s because of a lack of house building. The report stated that 240,000 houses needed to be built each year to keep up with demand.
(i.e. 45 years multiplied by 75,000 missing homes per year)
Several years ago, the government set a target to build 300,000 new homes each year to address this issue.
However, in 2019/20, the actual number of homes delivered stood at just 243,770. In 2020/21, the number of properties built dropped to only 216,000 new homes. In a nutshell, there are fewer available homes to buy, meaning fewer available homes to rent.
Secondly, Bath tenants are staying in their rental homes longer.
The average rent of a Bath property in November 2022 is £2,245 per calendar month (up from £1,409 per calendar month in February 2020) – quite a rise!
These numbers translate into Bath renters not being able to pay the rent and be able to save for a deposit, or if they are saving, it is taking a lot longer to save for a deposit due to the cost-of-living crisis and higher rent costs.
Also, many Bath tenants have decided to stay in their existing rental homes because of the rent rises. Many landlords are less inclined to raise the rent on an existing property when they have a decent tenant who keeps the property in good condition and pays rent on time. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that rent arrears in those properties are dropping as tenants know if they don’t pay the rent, the chances are they will have trouble finding another property, and if they do, they will have to pay a lot for their next rental home.
For Bath landlords, this is all positive news – tenants are staying for longer in their rental properties, arrears are lower, and void periods are less likely. When it comes to the market there is less competition (because of the decrease in the availability of Bath rental properties) so this makes the investment an even better bet.
Thirdly, landlords are selling up on the back of recently increased house prices.
It would be difficult for Bath buy-to-let landlords to ignore the rising property prices in recent years.
For some buy-to-let landlords, especially those who were classified as ‘accidental landlords’ (an accidental landlord is a landlord who never chose to become a landlord, it was just after the Credit Crunch of 2008/9, they found themselves unable to sell their property, so they temporarily let their own property out), they chose to ‘cash in’ on the higher house prices. This would have also contributed to the lack of available Bath homes for rent.
Landlords have a few costs to consider before investing in buy-to-let, including everything from regular refurbishment costs, buildings insurance, letting agents’ fees, income tax, and not forgetting stamp duty.
Talking of costs, one issue some Bath landlords are facing is their failure to plan financially for the recent mortgage interest rate rises. Some landlords may have become complacent to the ultra-low Bank of England base rates we have had since 2008 and, therefore, may need to sell their rental property, which, if bought by a first-time buyer, will remove another property from the Private Rented Sector.
Another hurdle to jump is the proposed new regulations requiring better energy efficiency for rental properties. It is proposed that all new tenancies must have at least a minimum of a ‘C’ rating for their EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) from 2025 (and 2028 for all existing tenancies).
Therefore, as a buy-to-let Bath landlord, it is wise to do your research to make sure the buy-to-let opportunity is correct for your rental portfolio, particularly when it comes to weathering any impending financial storms.
Landlords can earn money from their buy-to-let investments in two ways. One is the property’s capital growth, and the other is the rental return (often expressed as a yield). In 96% of buy-to-let investments, there is an inverse relationship between capital growth and yield (i.e. properties that tend to go up in value quicker will have lower yields 96% of the time – and vice versa).
Getting the best balance of yield and capital growth depends on your current and future needs from your Bath buy-to-let investment.
The continued shortage of Bath rental properties means it will be more difficult than ever to find a Bath property to rent, and so rents will continue to grow.
Unlike in Scotland, England and Wales do not have rent controls, with Westminster ruling out the possibility of introducing rent control here to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
You would think rent controls would be a no-brainer, yet economists from around the world have proved for the last 75 years that rent controls might help tenants in the short term, yet ultimately it drives landlords to sell their investments in the long term, thus reducing the stock of available properties to rent out (not great for future tenants).
Landlords who persevere with their Bath buy-to-let properties or become a Bath buy-to-let landlord are set to benefit because they have an asset in very high demand.
The housing shortage, not to mention the other issues discussed above that are affecting the supply of rental properties, is unlikely to be fixed anytime soon!
In conclusion, the Bath rental market is a constantly changing picture. What is known is that the supply of rental properties is far from what is needed, which can only be to the benefit of buy-to-let investors rather than of tenants renting.
I see buy-to-let as a long-term investment. Everyone reading this knows that the real value in your buy-to-let investment is playing the long game, allowing your Bath buy-to-let investment to grow over time. Like the crypto or stock market, getting sucked in by get-rich-quick schemes that are selling ‘apparent quick wins’ in property investment is very easy.
It seems that there has never been a better time to be a private landlord: tenant demand is up and predicted to rise even further; rents are increasing and yields are at their highest since the Landlords Panel research study began in 2006.
It is unsurprising therefore that more than one in four landlords are now making a living from letting their properties, according to recent research by BDRC Continental.
The research also found that a further 52% use rental properties to supplement their income, with 74% of those planning to use rental income to help fund their retirement.
Landlords stated that the opportunity to achieve a better return on property than investing in the stock market was a major factor in entering the buy-to-let market, along with the chance to make rental income their main source of income in the future.
It seems that optimism is in the air with 68% of landlords rating their capital gains and rental prospects as good or very good, compared with 60% in the third quarter of last year. This was found to be at the highest level since 2007.
John Heron, managing director of Paragon Mortgages, said: “Tenant demand for rental property remains strong, and with the mainstay of investment coming from private landlords, it is important for lenders to develop products that can underpin sustainable growth.”
Many of the landlords surveyed said they were looking to expand their portfolios, which is good news for buy-to-let mortgage providers and brokers. However it raises another issue when you consider that 63% agree ‘strongly’ that the buy-to-let market would benefit from greater competition. The industry cannot afford to have its key customers believing there’s too little competition in the market.
The research sounded a warning note for brokers and intermediaries: 21% of all landlords agree ‘strongly’ that they will approach a lender directly the next time they need funding. And meanwhile some lenders are moving in the direction of providing a more holistic service to landlords – e.g. educating them on legal obligations, marketing and how to become more profitable.
With tenant demand almost certainly set to increase into 2014, it seems inevitable that even more landlords will be able to make a living from their rental properties in the future. If you are a landlord or are thinking about investing in rental property in Bath, we would be more than happy to discuss any questions you have about this topic either in person or via Facebook or Twitter.
